It feels like we are trapped in the hold of a sinking ship, and pounding frantically on the hatch doors for someone to open it so we can get out. But the person who could open the hatch door is too distracted, and self absorbed to manage. Biden has been the most effective president of my lifetime, despite all the obstructive Republican headwinds. He has also spent his entire career as a privileged, cosseted, powerful, influential white man. This background doesn't really support the sort of objective introspection necessary to face one's failings and shortcomings. That protective bubble of constant praise, positive feedback, comfort, and freedom from consequences makes him incapable of facing hard, unpleasant reality. Whether he acknowledges it or not, his obvious age-related inability to conduct the kind of organized, articulate, and effective campaign needed to defeat the existential crisis of another PAB administration is terrifying to contemplate.
I wish Biden could rise to this challenge, but the evidence he cannot is overwhelming. He must step aside and give full throated support to Kamala Harris. She, along with a dynamic VP candidate (TBD - maybe Secretary Mayor Pete?) would be a perfect foil against the white supremacy Republican ticket.
The humiliating decline of Diane Feinstein we all witnessed, and her complete refusal to acknowledge her unfitness, is all too recent. It would be a catastrophe for Biden to follow her disastrous example. It is also a disaster for the Democratic party to play the same glib game of pretending (like Republicans) that there is nothing wrong with the man at the top of the ticket. The ship is taking on water, in very rough seas. There is no time to waste.
I’ve read elsewhere that the only reason Democratic strategists and party loyalists favored Biden in 2020 was because they were afraid that Bernie Sanders would become the nominee. Now I believe those same major Democratic players (in the sense the ones with the biggest microphones & deepest pockets) are afraid that we will end up with a black women in the White House instead of a white male. They’re the same ones pushing for the No Labels party to give us Joe Manchin for President.
If they ignore those us is who want to continue with Biden-Harris they will show they’re not acting democratically & what does that say about Democrats position on democracy?
Biden has shown he can do the job.
Those who think he’s senile haven’t shown us the evidence.
Yes he’s old & getting more fragile, but I know lots of old fragile people still working with more marbles than a lot of the younger candidates.
In 2024, like 2020 Biden-Harris is still our best chance of persuading the people on the fringes.
Yo guys. Stephen is right. The threat level did not exist when Joe barely beat tRump. It has only gotten worse and Joe OLDER. Vote Blue and Kamala too!
Like, I'm trying to buy some farmland under a historically marginalized farmers program (black, woman, lgbt, beginner farmer) and I can just imagine where that application will end up with a USDA filled with trump sycophants. Maybe I'll emphasize my white half...
But don't polls usually have pretty low response rates, and the pollsters correct for that? I know polls can vary in terms of quality, but non-biased polling experts are usually pretty good at picking out the reliable from unreliable ones in putting together their polling averages.
I voted for Biden in the primary, so the ONLY candidate that I will accept, other than Biden, is VP Harris. If so many Dems think that Biden should drop out, I blame Congressional Democratic "leaders" for not backing the guy that we all voted for, and I am pissed that they think that our votes don't count. In addition, as has been mentioned - what is the plan if he does drop out? And why are they doing this? Some have suggested that Biden is too progressive, others that blackmail may be involved, but it most likely is just good, old fashioned Democratic spinelessness. We are facing a real threat with the entire republican party (it ain't just trump) and some Dems are playing a stupid game, for what purpose I can't fathom.
I'd put it all down to "we think he's going to lose". Which while a debatable proposition--its' not certain he will lose, and it's also not certain that the only plausible replacement (Harris) would do better--is at least a valid concern.
Yeah, it's demoralizing that they are probably thinking that he's going to lose, and by thinking that, they are making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. What's so dumb about it - they can't see how they are hurting their own chances of winning their races.
I think a realistic perspective is "he's down now, not by a whole lot, and the question here is how best to pull ahead". We don't need 1972-style "we're going to lose anyway" or 2016-style "we got this, no worries"!
I don't think it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, per se, as I'm not sure the single mom who works at a Walmart in Pittsburgh follows this drama all that closely.
To Brando's first point, though, I think the problem for Dems -- esp those who have run multiple successful campaigns -- is that Biden seems in denial and unwilling or unable to do what's necessary to turn things around. Not every play that has a tough run of previews is doomed, but turning it around requires a receptive creative team willing to have tough conversations and make considerable changes. I've seen no evidence of this from the Biden campaign, which is otherwise proceeding no differently than if they were 5 points ahead.
Bill Clinton survived the 1994 rout and won re-election in part because he was willing to make big changes.
Yeah--from the reports coming out of those meetings, he hasn't convinced them he has as strategy to win. That's the troubling part--what's his game plan, if he remains the nominee? More interviews and rallies? More ads? So far he's been unable to move the needle for the past year and a half. What's he going to do for the next few crucial months?
Hard to move the needle with hostile media and a rank-and-file who won't share your campaign ads or clips after all! If they're too busy going "He's old" rather than, you know, sharing the Lester Holt interview, what's the point?
What is the big change? Was Bill Clinton's big change quitting the campaign, conceding the first four years, and then putting Al Gore to the top of the ticket? Or did he run center like a lot of liberals complained about?
The only salient considerable change at this scale, considering all the naysayers are anti-Biden, is that Biden drops out because old. But here's the thing, there's no commensurate call for Kamala Harris to be the nominee instead, and that makes me incandescent with rage. That's telling me they want to push Kamala Harris off a glass cliff. Convince me otherwise. Why isn't Schiff saying Harris gets the nod? Why isn't Pelosi? Do they think Newsom, who already endorsed Biden, is going to shiv Biden and Harris then? I look forward then to see the rightwing media centipede hang California around his neck, the MSM pick it up and then he'll get McGovern numbers at the end of it.
After the 1994 midterms, Clinton did drop health care reform (which by that point was a political albatross) and focused on triangulating with the GOP and House Dems, to pass welfare reform among other "moderate" measures. It helped position him as a moderate alternative to liberal Dems and right wing Republicans, took away key issues for the GOP to run on in 1996, and put him in a good position to win.
It's not that Biden's only option is dropping out, but if he's not going to do that, he does have to convince his party (many of whom are risking their careers to publicly revolt) what he plans to do to pull ahead of Trump. At least from the reports that have leaked out, he has not convinced them yet.
But that's also true of whomever they propose (if they even DID propose someone, because they're not coming out full-throated for Kamala Harris). And that angers me too. Don't just shiv Biden without saying "Okay let's tag in Kamala Harris" because then the message is clear that they want to get rid of her too. Probably to replace them both with Tim Kaine types.
No that's too hard, it's easier to doompost and say he should step down and yield to some Johnny Unbeatable (and I'm certain it'd be just some other dude). They should put their cards on the table and give us a damn name.
Ultimately, it's the candidate. Not even the best surrogate can sell ice to polar bears (though due to global warming that joke is less effective).
Again, if the fundamentals were against us, Dems could strongly advocate for Biden despite them, etc. But the voters have an issue with Biden specifically and only really he can convince them he's up for another full term.
Yeah--notice that other Dem candidates on the ballot (Rosen, Baldwin, etc.) are polling just fine--clearly they are making the case! But as you say, if the problem is not the record, but Biden himself? It's on him to turn it around.
I know we've endlessly litigated that debate, but that had more importance than typical debates. He was already behind Trump, needed the debate to dispell any concerns that he couldn't make the sale, and it went worse than anyone imagined. What does that say about his team, and their plan to "sell him" for the next few months? I wouldn't trust these people to sell ice to polar bears either!
Ironically, now it would seem as if Dems MUST replace Biden after these leaks with prominent Dem leaders saying that he can’t win. If Trump regains power, Dems will be accused of having had Hamlet syndrome.
It’s different from 2016 when Dems were fully confident that Hillary would win and could stand by their decision
If they plan to push Harris, which would make the most sense, she’s already part of the ticket. If something happened to/with Biden, you’d get her anyway
This public hand wringing compared to the GOP goose stepping behind Trump is really off putting and embarrassing.
Which gets back to my old point--WHY IS TEAM BIDEN NOT MAKING HARRIS THE FOCAL POINT OF THE CAMPAIGN? She should have been up and front from the beginning, because everyone knows Joe's the oldest POTUS in history and she could be promoted at any moment. So as nominee or VP nominee, build up her visibility, get voters comfortable with her! Either way that's going to be key to winning in the general election.
Biden was never interested in her as a "co-president." That was something that Harris supporters projected onto Biden. Hell, if Sinema had run again, she would have more to latch onto thanks to prominent role with bipartisan infrastructure deal. That was an easy legislative victory that Biden could've associated with Harris as the negotiation lead, etc.
If he didn't want her as a "co-president" (or at least a "presumptive heir") then he shouldn't have picked her, or certainly shouldn't have run for re-election. He's 82--what did he think voters would think? That it'd be like electing any young, healthy POTUS?
thank you Stephen, best breakdown of what's happened I've seen yet.
I've been resolutely committed to keeping Biden on the ticket, if we could. didn't care that he couldn't serve out his term, just felt as you said the fundamentals would come into play, a lot of voters would come home after Labor Day when these shifts occur, and the contrast with the Project 25 gang and general odium of Trump would do the rest. beating Trump is the whole game right now, so if Biden couldn't serve his term and we got President Harris, I'm fine with that. she's far more prepared and experienced than any other candidate, as talented as our up-and-comers are.
my beef with the Dump Joe crowd is largely that they were acting out of panic after the debate, and that in their narrative the only problem was replacing Joe, after that it would be smooth sailing. no worries about our diverse, fractious coalition, of which we need every single vote, coming apart over who we choose and how we do it. there was the issue of disenfranchising the 14 million of us who voted for Biden in primaries, and the question of who would choose the new nominee.
and a lot of the musing about possible replacements seemed more like an internet poll over which movie or star was best, a kind of idle shopping for someone younger and better who would (they think) never disappoint them...that seemed barely tethered to the reality that we gotta play the game we're in, not cast a TV show hypothetically.
and last, it's been jarring and outraging to see how members of the Fourth Estate who have helped normalize Trump relentlessly, who when challenged on their compromised access journalism shrugged and rolled their eyes at the dumb subscribers who clearly don't get what a great job they're doing...suddenly becoming wild-eyed activists screaming for the head of the Democratic candidate. all these years they've insisted they can't accurately portray Trump's threat bc "we don't work for the Biden campaign" or somesuch, now they emerge as zealous advocates of a step that should only be taken when absolutely necessary, and with careful thinking, planning, organizing, and politicking to avoid the schisms the GOP and Putin and God knows who else are so eager to create.
so now we're going to do this. do you have confidence the Dems are on top of the potential pitfalls and can do as much as is humanly / politically possible to avoid them? I do not, and the fact that the most vehement Dump Joe folks have never bothered to engage or even acknowledge that these issues exist, makes me fear for the outcome.
but again, gotta play the game we're in. I would vote for a ham sandwich this November. have voted straight Dem ticket my whole life. depending on how this matter is handled, I may change my affiliation to independent after the election.
sorry this got so long, like a lot of us I've been thinking a lot about it with obviously a lot of strong feelings and concerns...
One thing to give us a bit of hope is that amid all of this, Biden is down in the polls by not by huge, McGovernesque margins. And one reason for that is that no matter how much disarray Democrats are in, no matter how abysmal Biden's past two weeks have been, about half the country is still scared shitless of the screaming monstrosity of a second Trump presidency. It's possible if enough people are focused on Trump, they'll take the "vote for a ham sandwich if it stops this" approach.
The problem is that there might not be enough negative partisanship to help us win. There are Biden 2020 and Trump 2016 voters who think Biden is simply unfit
A very cogent review of the past few weeks. ABC News says today that Schumer, Jeffries and Pelosi have privately told Biden to drop out. None of the public or leaked calls from Dems to abandon the race mention an alternative or definitive plan on beating Trump. Given the 67% of Dem voters who ascribe to the premise that Biden should leave, it seems to me the party is broken and Trump will return to the White House. I have lived through multiple horrible Republican administrations and several disappointing Democratic ones, but I am frankly gobsmacked that the party leadership and voters are united in throwing away their only chance to defeat Trump. Smart politics would have been to rally around Biden and hit back hard against the attacks on his competency, but now we’ll go into the election with a splintered, self-defeating party no matter who the candidate is. I can only ask, “Why?” and “So, what’s the plan, Adam, Chuck, Hakeem and Nancy?” What’s the plan for beating Trump? What’s the plan for protecting women and Blacks and poor people and asylum seekers and Ukranians and undocumented immigrants? Anyone got a fucking clue?
I've taken to calling their plan 'wishing for their Manic Pixie Dream Candidate'. Not a SINGLE one of them are offering any sort of plan, just heaving Biden out of the lifeboat.
Honestly, if someone truly thought Biden was doomed and needed to be replaced, their best bet is making the case for Harris, rather than this "find someone else' scenario that is just poorly thought out.
Stephen, excellent writing as always, your use of humor helps make this very bleak situation easier to take.
I think it's obvious that we'd be unlikely to have this conversation (should Biden stay or drop out) if he was leading the way he was in 2020 at this point. I keep hearing from "hopium" Democrats that the polls are all vastly underestimating Biden's support, that his approval rating isn't really below 40%, and he's not down in all swing states, that voters aren't insanely comparing him unfavorably to Trump on things like "safeguarding Democracy"--that these polls are all wrong in ways that polls (which turned out to be fairly accurate, and if anything underestimating Trump's support) were not wrong in the past few cycles. I also have not heard any compelling reason why these polls are all wrong about Biden but still show him running ten points or more behind other Democrats on the statewide ballot in those swing states--why would survey responses be only wrong about Biden, but correct for say Tammy Baldwin? I fear people are deluding themselves that unless this trajectory changes, Biden will lose to Trump.
At the same time, there's a lot of nonsense in the "replace Biden" camp--suggestions of a mini-primary, nominating anyone but Harris and thinking that won't split the party further--the real question is whether Biden or Harris is a bigger risk at this point. Good arguments can be made for either--is Biden likely to do better among older voters? Is Harris more likely to improve his showing across the board?--but that's the discussion to have right now. Democrats have to admit that with these "fundamentals", and considering the presidential record of Trump, Biden has been a lousy salesman so far--he has simply not made the case to the public, and the only question now is whether he can still do so, or if Harris can.
Forget "Dems in disarray" and any bad faith actors involved in this--what matters is the cold hard question of who can do better in this home stretch, weigh the risks and pluses and minuses, and make a decision before the Democratic convention. (If there is going to be a switch, it has to be Biden saying "due to health concerns, I think it would be too risky to continue to campaign on a full schedule, and I owe it to the country to put forward Harris, who I have shown since 2020 that I have full faith in her ability to lead" or something like that. Harris then would run on their record, her promises for the next four years, and a sharp attack on Trump. The downside risk of course is Democrats flubbing this with internal strife, rather than a consensus plan.
It feels like we are trapped in the hold of a sinking ship, and pounding frantically on the hatch doors for someone to open it so we can get out. But the person who could open the hatch door is too distracted, and self absorbed to manage. Biden has been the most effective president of my lifetime, despite all the obstructive Republican headwinds. He has also spent his entire career as a privileged, cosseted, powerful, influential white man. This background doesn't really support the sort of objective introspection necessary to face one's failings and shortcomings. That protective bubble of constant praise, positive feedback, comfort, and freedom from consequences makes him incapable of facing hard, unpleasant reality. Whether he acknowledges it or not, his obvious age-related inability to conduct the kind of organized, articulate, and effective campaign needed to defeat the existential crisis of another PAB administration is terrifying to contemplate.
I wish Biden could rise to this challenge, but the evidence he cannot is overwhelming. He must step aside and give full throated support to Kamala Harris. She, along with a dynamic VP candidate (TBD - maybe Secretary Mayor Pete?) would be a perfect foil against the white supremacy Republican ticket.
The humiliating decline of Diane Feinstein we all witnessed, and her complete refusal to acknowledge her unfitness, is all too recent. It would be a catastrophe for Biden to follow her disastrous example. It is also a disaster for the Democratic party to play the same glib game of pretending (like Republicans) that there is nothing wrong with the man at the top of the ticket. The ship is taking on water, in very rough seas. There is no time to waste.
This
I’ve read elsewhere that the only reason Democratic strategists and party loyalists favored Biden in 2020 was because they were afraid that Bernie Sanders would become the nominee. Now I believe those same major Democratic players (in the sense the ones with the biggest microphones & deepest pockets) are afraid that we will end up with a black women in the White House instead of a white male. They’re the same ones pushing for the No Labels party to give us Joe Manchin for President.
If they ignore those us is who want to continue with Biden-Harris they will show they’re not acting democratically & what does that say about Democrats position on democracy?
Biden has shown he can do the job.
Those who think he’s senile haven’t shown us the evidence.
Yes he’s old & getting more fragile, but I know lots of old fragile people still working with more marbles than a lot of the younger candidates.
In 2024, like 2020 Biden-Harris is still our best chance of persuading the people on the fringes.
Great one
Yo guys. Stephen is right. The threat level did not exist when Joe barely beat tRump. It has only gotten worse and Joe OLDER. Vote Blue and Kamala too!
Biden has legit dementia and you Biden dead-Enders are gonna get us all killed. Replace him now!!!!
You have no proof of that. Maybe it’s you who wamt to get us killed.
Ok battle box
"(although if the worst happens in the election, I might take tap dancing lessons from Tim Scott; I have a family to protect)." Ugghh... too real.
Like, I'm trying to buy some farmland under a historically marginalized farmers program (black, woman, lgbt, beginner farmer) and I can just imagine where that application will end up with a USDA filled with trump sycophants. Maybe I'll emphasize my white half...
Stephen, I suggest you have a look at the sample sizes on those ABC polls. They don't represent what the media wants us to think they represent.
https://substack.com/@atompkins768358/note/c-62469603
Rock > me < Hard Place
I'd sign up for this less ambitious platform.
I think this poll had like a 15 percent response rate.
That is, the results would be meaningless with such a low response rate.
But don't polls usually have pretty low response rates, and the pollsters correct for that? I know polls can vary in terms of quality, but non-biased polling experts are usually pretty good at picking out the reliable from unreliable ones in putting together their polling averages.
"and the pollsters correct for that?"
You can't correct for information you don't have.
I still use Cindy Crawford as my go to. What do kids freaking know? They’d probably go with a Kardashian. Please.
Do they even have supermodels anymore?
I voted for Biden in the primary, so the ONLY candidate that I will accept, other than Biden, is VP Harris. If so many Dems think that Biden should drop out, I blame Congressional Democratic "leaders" for not backing the guy that we all voted for, and I am pissed that they think that our votes don't count. In addition, as has been mentioned - what is the plan if he does drop out? And why are they doing this? Some have suggested that Biden is too progressive, others that blackmail may be involved, but it most likely is just good, old fashioned Democratic spinelessness. We are facing a real threat with the entire republican party (it ain't just trump) and some Dems are playing a stupid game, for what purpose I can't fathom.
Bullshit, you’ll vote for any Dem over Trump. Fucking liar
I'd put it all down to "we think he's going to lose". Which while a debatable proposition--its' not certain he will lose, and it's also not certain that the only plausible replacement (Harris) would do better--is at least a valid concern.
Yeah, it's demoralizing that they are probably thinking that he's going to lose, and by thinking that, they are making it a self-fulfilling prophecy. What's so dumb about it - they can't see how they are hurting their own chances of winning their races.
I think a realistic perspective is "he's down now, not by a whole lot, and the question here is how best to pull ahead". We don't need 1972-style "we're going to lose anyway" or 2016-style "we got this, no worries"!
I don't think it's a self-fulfilling prophecy, per se, as I'm not sure the single mom who works at a Walmart in Pittsburgh follows this drama all that closely.
To Brando's first point, though, I think the problem for Dems -- esp those who have run multiple successful campaigns -- is that Biden seems in denial and unwilling or unable to do what's necessary to turn things around. Not every play that has a tough run of previews is doomed, but turning it around requires a receptive creative team willing to have tough conversations and make considerable changes. I've seen no evidence of this from the Biden campaign, which is otherwise proceeding no differently than if they were 5 points ahead.
Bill Clinton survived the 1994 rout and won re-election in part because he was willing to make big changes.
Yeah--from the reports coming out of those meetings, he hasn't convinced them he has as strategy to win. That's the troubling part--what's his game plan, if he remains the nominee? More interviews and rallies? More ads? So far he's been unable to move the needle for the past year and a half. What's he going to do for the next few crucial months?
Hard to move the needle with hostile media and a rank-and-file who won't share your campaign ads or clips after all! If they're too busy going "He's old" rather than, you know, sharing the Lester Holt interview, what's the point?
What is the big change? Was Bill Clinton's big change quitting the campaign, conceding the first four years, and then putting Al Gore to the top of the ticket? Or did he run center like a lot of liberals complained about?
The only salient considerable change at this scale, considering all the naysayers are anti-Biden, is that Biden drops out because old. But here's the thing, there's no commensurate call for Kamala Harris to be the nominee instead, and that makes me incandescent with rage. That's telling me they want to push Kamala Harris off a glass cliff. Convince me otherwise. Why isn't Schiff saying Harris gets the nod? Why isn't Pelosi? Do they think Newsom, who already endorsed Biden, is going to shiv Biden and Harris then? I look forward then to see the rightwing media centipede hang California around his neck, the MSM pick it up and then he'll get McGovern numbers at the end of it.
After the 1994 midterms, Clinton did drop health care reform (which by that point was a political albatross) and focused on triangulating with the GOP and House Dems, to pass welfare reform among other "moderate" measures. It helped position him as a moderate alternative to liberal Dems and right wing Republicans, took away key issues for the GOP to run on in 1996, and put him in a good position to win.
It's not that Biden's only option is dropping out, but if he's not going to do that, he does have to convince his party (many of whom are risking their careers to publicly revolt) what he plans to do to pull ahead of Trump. At least from the reports that have leaked out, he has not convinced them yet.
But that's also true of whomever they propose (if they even DID propose someone, because they're not coming out full-throated for Kamala Harris). And that angers me too. Don't just shiv Biden without saying "Okay let's tag in Kamala Harris" because then the message is clear that they want to get rid of her too. Probably to replace them both with Tim Kaine types.
The maddening thing is they are talking about it as if they had no agency to help him win.
THAT is what they should be doing - helping him to win.
No that's too hard, it's easier to doompost and say he should step down and yield to some Johnny Unbeatable (and I'm certain it'd be just some other dude). They should put their cards on the table and give us a damn name.
Ultimately, it's the candidate. Not even the best surrogate can sell ice to polar bears (though due to global warming that joke is less effective).
Again, if the fundamentals were against us, Dems could strongly advocate for Biden despite them, etc. But the voters have an issue with Biden specifically and only really he can convince them he's up for another full term.
Yeah--notice that other Dem candidates on the ballot (Rosen, Baldwin, etc.) are polling just fine--clearly they are making the case! But as you say, if the problem is not the record, but Biden himself? It's on him to turn it around.
I know we've endlessly litigated that debate, but that had more importance than typical debates. He was already behind Trump, needed the debate to dispell any concerns that he couldn't make the sale, and it went worse than anyone imagined. What does that say about his team, and their plan to "sell him" for the next few months? I wouldn't trust these people to sell ice to polar bears either!
I think the early debate gave Dems the best chance to course correct. Debates after the convention, as typical, would've been a disaster.
Ironically, now it would seem as if Dems MUST replace Biden after these leaks with prominent Dem leaders saying that he can’t win. If Trump regains power, Dems will be accused of having had Hamlet syndrome.
It’s different from 2016 when Dems were fully confident that Hillary would win and could stand by their decision
If they plan to push Harris, which would make the most sense, she’s already part of the ticket. If something happened to/with Biden, you’d get her anyway
This public hand wringing compared to the GOP goose stepping behind Trump is really off putting and embarrassing.
Which gets back to my old point--WHY IS TEAM BIDEN NOT MAKING HARRIS THE FOCAL POINT OF THE CAMPAIGN? She should have been up and front from the beginning, because everyone knows Joe's the oldest POTUS in history and she could be promoted at any moment. So as nominee or VP nominee, build up her visibility, get voters comfortable with her! Either way that's going to be key to winning in the general election.
Biden was never interested in her as a "co-president." That was something that Harris supporters projected onto Biden. Hell, if Sinema had run again, she would have more to latch onto thanks to prominent role with bipartisan infrastructure deal. That was an easy legislative victory that Biden could've associated with Harris as the negotiation lead, etc.
If he didn't want her as a "co-president" (or at least a "presumptive heir") then he shouldn't have picked her, or certainly shouldn't have run for re-election. He's 82--what did he think voters would think? That it'd be like electing any young, healthy POTUS?
Agreed!
It's definitely becoming untenable. I really have no idea what's going to happen, but I think if he does step down, it'd have to be very soon.
" The Democratic National Convention is less than a month away, so that process might lack the careful deliberation of a last-call bar pickup."
Might I suggest the appropriate theme music: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-0lV5qs1Qw
thank you Stephen, best breakdown of what's happened I've seen yet.
I've been resolutely committed to keeping Biden on the ticket, if we could. didn't care that he couldn't serve out his term, just felt as you said the fundamentals would come into play, a lot of voters would come home after Labor Day when these shifts occur, and the contrast with the Project 25 gang and general odium of Trump would do the rest. beating Trump is the whole game right now, so if Biden couldn't serve his term and we got President Harris, I'm fine with that. she's far more prepared and experienced than any other candidate, as talented as our up-and-comers are.
my beef with the Dump Joe crowd is largely that they were acting out of panic after the debate, and that in their narrative the only problem was replacing Joe, after that it would be smooth sailing. no worries about our diverse, fractious coalition, of which we need every single vote, coming apart over who we choose and how we do it. there was the issue of disenfranchising the 14 million of us who voted for Biden in primaries, and the question of who would choose the new nominee.
and a lot of the musing about possible replacements seemed more like an internet poll over which movie or star was best, a kind of idle shopping for someone younger and better who would (they think) never disappoint them...that seemed barely tethered to the reality that we gotta play the game we're in, not cast a TV show hypothetically.
and last, it's been jarring and outraging to see how members of the Fourth Estate who have helped normalize Trump relentlessly, who when challenged on their compromised access journalism shrugged and rolled their eyes at the dumb subscribers who clearly don't get what a great job they're doing...suddenly becoming wild-eyed activists screaming for the head of the Democratic candidate. all these years they've insisted they can't accurately portray Trump's threat bc "we don't work for the Biden campaign" or somesuch, now they emerge as zealous advocates of a step that should only be taken when absolutely necessary, and with careful thinking, planning, organizing, and politicking to avoid the schisms the GOP and Putin and God knows who else are so eager to create.
so now we're going to do this. do you have confidence the Dems are on top of the potential pitfalls and can do as much as is humanly / politically possible to avoid them? I do not, and the fact that the most vehement Dump Joe folks have never bothered to engage or even acknowledge that these issues exist, makes me fear for the outcome.
but again, gotta play the game we're in. I would vote for a ham sandwich this November. have voted straight Dem ticket my whole life. depending on how this matter is handled, I may change my affiliation to independent after the election.
sorry this got so long, like a lot of us I've been thinking a lot about it with obviously a lot of strong feelings and concerns...
One thing to give us a bit of hope is that amid all of this, Biden is down in the polls by not by huge, McGovernesque margins. And one reason for that is that no matter how much disarray Democrats are in, no matter how abysmal Biden's past two weeks have been, about half the country is still scared shitless of the screaming monstrosity of a second Trump presidency. It's possible if enough people are focused on Trump, they'll take the "vote for a ham sandwich if it stops this" approach.
The problem is that there might not be enough negative partisanship to help us win. There are Biden 2020 and Trump 2016 voters who think Biden is simply unfit
That's the rub. And it'd explain why Biden is down significantly from where he was four years ago.
A very cogent review of the past few weeks. ABC News says today that Schumer, Jeffries and Pelosi have privately told Biden to drop out. None of the public or leaked calls from Dems to abandon the race mention an alternative or definitive plan on beating Trump. Given the 67% of Dem voters who ascribe to the premise that Biden should leave, it seems to me the party is broken and Trump will return to the White House. I have lived through multiple horrible Republican administrations and several disappointing Democratic ones, but I am frankly gobsmacked that the party leadership and voters are united in throwing away their only chance to defeat Trump. Smart politics would have been to rally around Biden and hit back hard against the attacks on his competency, but now we’ll go into the election with a splintered, self-defeating party no matter who the candidate is. I can only ask, “Why?” and “So, what’s the plan, Adam, Chuck, Hakeem and Nancy?” What’s the plan for beating Trump? What’s the plan for protecting women and Blacks and poor people and asylum seekers and Ukranians and undocumented immigrants? Anyone got a fucking clue?
I've taken to calling their plan 'wishing for their Manic Pixie Dream Candidate'. Not a SINGLE one of them are offering any sort of plan, just heaving Biden out of the lifeboat.
They have no step two https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E-Q8dyeWEAEagwx.jpg
Honestly, if someone truly thought Biden was doomed and needed to be replaced, their best bet is making the case for Harris, rather than this "find someone else' scenario that is just poorly thought out.
Stephen, excellent writing as always, your use of humor helps make this very bleak situation easier to take.
I think it's obvious that we'd be unlikely to have this conversation (should Biden stay or drop out) if he was leading the way he was in 2020 at this point. I keep hearing from "hopium" Democrats that the polls are all vastly underestimating Biden's support, that his approval rating isn't really below 40%, and he's not down in all swing states, that voters aren't insanely comparing him unfavorably to Trump on things like "safeguarding Democracy"--that these polls are all wrong in ways that polls (which turned out to be fairly accurate, and if anything underestimating Trump's support) were not wrong in the past few cycles. I also have not heard any compelling reason why these polls are all wrong about Biden but still show him running ten points or more behind other Democrats on the statewide ballot in those swing states--why would survey responses be only wrong about Biden, but correct for say Tammy Baldwin? I fear people are deluding themselves that unless this trajectory changes, Biden will lose to Trump.
At the same time, there's a lot of nonsense in the "replace Biden" camp--suggestions of a mini-primary, nominating anyone but Harris and thinking that won't split the party further--the real question is whether Biden or Harris is a bigger risk at this point. Good arguments can be made for either--is Biden likely to do better among older voters? Is Harris more likely to improve his showing across the board?--but that's the discussion to have right now. Democrats have to admit that with these "fundamentals", and considering the presidential record of Trump, Biden has been a lousy salesman so far--he has simply not made the case to the public, and the only question now is whether he can still do so, or if Harris can.
Forget "Dems in disarray" and any bad faith actors involved in this--what matters is the cold hard question of who can do better in this home stretch, weigh the risks and pluses and minuses, and make a decision before the Democratic convention. (If there is going to be a switch, it has to be Biden saying "due to health concerns, I think it would be too risky to continue to campaign on a full schedule, and I owe it to the country to put forward Harris, who I have shown since 2020 that I have full faith in her ability to lead" or something like that. Harris then would run on their record, her promises for the next four years, and a sharp attack on Trump. The downside risk of course is Democrats flubbing this with internal strife, rather than a consensus plan.