We don’t need a slightly more multicultural fascist movement
Avoiding the blame game.
Perhaps the biggest post-election gut punch for Democrats is Donald Trump’s historic performance with voters of color. His support among Black voters was the best for a Republican candidate in 48 years. He won 46 percent of Latinos, slightly better than George W. Bush’s performance in 2004. He outright won Latinos in Michigan (58 to 39 percent) and almost tripled his Black voter support in Wisconsin (22 percent compared to 2020’s 8 percent).
These facts have inconvenienced the many post-mortems that read as if they were written prior to the actual election. Kamala Harris won a greater share of the white vote nationally than Barack Obama in 2012 when we were all celebrating a post-racial America. Harris’s level of white support in the Rust Belt and Nevada was roughly the same as Biden’s in 2020. She did better than Biden with white voters in North Carolina. The numbers are clear that Trump’s improved performance among Black, Latino, and Asian voters is what cost Harris the election.
None of this should have come as a shock. Joe Biden struggled with Latino voters during the 2020 Democratic primary. He did better during the 2020 general election, but there were warning signs throughout his presidency of softening Latino and Black voter support.
Trump was leading Biden among Latinos (42 to 41 percent) in an NBC poll from February. CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out in June that Black support for Biden was eroding.
“Look at Black voters under the age of 50, holy cow folks .. holy cow, look at this, Joe Biden was up by 80 points among this group back at this point in 2020. Look at where that margin has careened down towards. It’s now just ... 37 points,” Enten said. “That lead has dropped by more than half ... I’ve never seen anything like this. I’m like speechless.”
Yet, the same month, The New Republic argued that “reports of Biden’s Black and Hispanic problem are vastly overrated.”
Not a surprise if people would’ve listened
As president, Joe Biden’s issues with minority support was evident for a while. I’d written a piece almost a year ago about a New York Times poll that had Trump soundly defeating him. The poll showed Biden underperforming his needed margins among Black and Latino voters.
Whenever I pointed out this disturbing trend among voters of color, white liberals uniformly dismissed the concern. A former colleague once responded to this polling data with one word: “Bullshit.”
Then came the lectures, the baseless presumptions presented as incontrovertible fact: “Black and Latino support for Trump will never increase because Trump is such an obvious racist. Black and Latino conservatives might exist, but they are a different type of conservative. They’ll never vote for Trump in meaningful numbers.”
Consistent among the lectures was a lack of any actual connection with Black and Latino Americans. I didn’t just “become Black.” I’ve been Black for several decades now, but I still don’t consider myself a subject matter expert. I just talk to Black people. I also don’t restrict my experience to people of color from my socioeconomic background.
A significant number of Black and Latino voters who’ve supported Democrats in the past do not have the same politics or priorities as Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, or Amy Klobuchar. During the 2020 Democratic primary, I watched somewhat astonished as many pundits boosted these candidates without any real acknowledgment of their poor showing among Black and Latino voters. Just last weekend, Josh Barro wrote a piece for The New York Times that argued if Biden had picked Klobuchar as his VP instead of Harris, she might be president-elect right now. Barro is welcome to his opinion. He is perfectly free to prefer Klobuchar to Harris, but he’s openly rejecting the reality of why Harris lost.
In polls taken during the 2020 primary, Klobuchar and Buttigieg performed historically poorly among Black voters in hypothetical matchups against Trump. They managed just 58 and 57 percent of the Black vote respectively. In the Nevada caucus, Bernie Sanders won 50 percent of Latino voters in a crowded field. Buttigieg won 11 percent and Klobuchar just 4 percent.
Whenever I raised this concern about Buttigieg and Klobuchar, I was told basically “that’s just the primary.” If either of them managed to win the nomination, they would magically end up with Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton-level Black and Latino support because that’s simply a given for Democrats, especially against President Klan Robe himself. Democrats just need to improve their performance among suburban white voters and the electoral riches are theirs to enjoy. White women will finally reject Trump and the GOP en masse. Now that was bullshit.
Declaring “bullshit” about Black and Latino voters moving toward Trump ends a necessary conversation, but far too many white liberals have trouble conceding what they don’t know. They can’t imagine simply asking Black and Latino people for their candid opinions. Too often we’re expected to just echo their own perspectives. They didn’t want to hear about Black or Latino voters who opposed covid shutdown, thought there was too much petty crime in cities, and blamed Biden for their post-pandemic financial struggles. You don’t have to agree with them. You just need to accept they exist and do more to reach them. Otherwise, this issue will further deteriorate as older Black voters pass away and younger Black voters have less of a direct connection to the Democratic Party through the Civil Rights Movement. We can take nothing and no one for granted.
Democrats boast about an inclusive, big tent coalition but they expect the minority members to read from a prepared script. They’re stunned that Black people don’t want to defund the police just reform it. They’ve believed since 2016 that Trump’s anti-immigration policies would flip Florida and Texas when instead Latinos have since moved to the right in those states.
Liberals posting the Bugs Bunny saws off Florida meme after Ron DeSantis or Donald Trump wins re-election with overwhelming Latino support is alienating and offensive. It doesn’t seek to understand what’s happening on the ground and in households different from their own.
I’ve noted repeatedly during this election and as far back as the 2022 midterms that mainstream liberal circles weren’t truly listening to diverse voices. The few people of color who received a platform were on thin ice if they ever challenged the preferred position of mainstream white liberals. After Trump’s first presidential victory in 2016, the mainstream media rushed to elevate voices reflective of white working class concerns. There is no such demand for different Black and Latino voices.
Trump’s performance among minorities wasn’t a surprise. Liberal publications and white political writers just ignored all the obvious signs before the election. They didn’t engage with working class Black or Latino voters. Instead, most pursued the anti-Trump white suburban Holy Grail, and they chose poorly.
Elizabeth Warren wants to tax billionaires so that we can properly invest in schools, daycare and infrastructure. These things aren't important to Black voters? It's she too "in the weeds" or sound "professorial"?
I just keep coming back to misogyny. A Black woman from a middle class background was running for president and a lot of people stayed home.
Agree that Dems are taking sooooo much for granted, over and over...but lordy what on earth did Trump offer that was more consistent with the "politics or priorities" of Black and Latino voters? I have a lot to learn...