Yes, America's Ready For A Woman President
Just don’t set them up to fail first.
An unfortunately common interpretation of the 2024 presidential election is that Kamala Harris lost because she’s a Black woman. Her former boss and political anchor Joe Biden suggested as much during a recent appearance on The View. “Biden Defends His Mental Acuity and Blames Sexism for Harris’s Defeat,” proclaimed The New York Times, although his actual remarks didn’t support either position.
“They went the route of the sexist route,” Biden said, invoking a distorted Robert Frost. “I’ve never seen quite as successful and a consistent campaign undercutting the notion that a woman couldn’t lead the country, and a woman of mixed race.”
Republicans ran more overtly transphobic ads than they did “Hey, Harris is a Black woman.” Biden was presumably around when Donald Trump peddled the racist conspiracy theory that Barack Obama wasn’t qualified to serve as president because he wasn’t actually born in America. (Hawaii is in fact America.)
Also, the right-wing campaign against a potential Harris presidency began in 2021, because while Republicans are evil, they are apparently capable of more foresight than the Biden administration, which actively marginalized Harris — more often elevating Pete Buttigieg and even Kyrsten Sinema. When Biden talks about people undercutting Harris, he might as well wear a hot dog costume.
Of course, it’s undeniable that misogyny plays a role in politics. It influences why voters are more inclined to trust male politicians than women. Male politicians are considered authentic or principled while women politicians are often dismissed as calculating and opportunistic.
However, the more positive and, I think, accurate reading of the 2024 election is that the Black woman did far better than the white man would have if he’d remained on the ballot, stinking up the joint. Most polls showed Biden on a trajectory to lose every battleground state plus New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, and even New Jersey. The campaign’s own internal polling in May, before the debate disaster, had him up in Minnesota and Virginia by just two points. Harris staunched the bleeding and prevented a potential 1980 or 1992 rout for the incumbent party.
Instead of praising Harris, who jumped on a political grenade, people are promoting the specious argument that her defeat proves that the American electorate is just too sexist to elect a woman. I won’t call out specific commentators who’ve done this, but I’ve seen it argued far too often that because more white men voted for Biden in 2020 that Harris in 2024 that means — ipso facto, carry the two — that white men are fundamentally less inclined to support a Black woman nominee. The proof for such claim is lacking.
Fewer people overall voted for Harris in 2024 than for Biden in 2020, but there’s no evidence that Biden would have done any better in 2024. Biden and his most loyal defenders still won’t acknowledge why Biden dropped out of the race. He contends he was forced out unfairly, and only conceded to the pressure because he didn’t want a “divided Democratic Party.” However, notoriously risk averse Democrats wanted him out because his numbers were terrible, had been terrible, and would likely remain terrible. Nancy Pelosi had heard from state party leaders that an alarming number of young people, including their own kids, weren’t coming out to vote for Biden.
I think the problem is viewing this as “Oh my God, voters chose Trump over a woman.” If Obama had lost to non-felons John McCain or Mitt Romney, most liberals, while disappointed, would accept this as a reasonable choice for a swing voter and not a racist rejection of a Black candidate, per se. However, most liberals believe Donald Trump is so uniquely terrible that systemic misogyny is the only explanation for why voters would pick him over a qualified woman without a criminal conviction who is also not insane. Yes, we live in a racist, sexist society. No, that isn’t the only reason Trump won.
First, it’s not as if Trump only wins against women. He defeated and humiliated Ron DeSantis, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Mike Pence … and the rest. Trump bested other white male candidates who still offered GOP voters a vehicle for right-wing policy advancement.
Second, we need to move past “Trump is too odious to win.” America is hyper-partsian. Once Trump had the nomination in 2016, 2020, and 2024, he had the full support of the GOP as the only viable vehicle for right-wing policy advancement. The idea that any voter who wanted those policies would reject him because he’s human scum has never borne out. After all, there are very liberal, hardcore Democratic voters in New York — including women! — who will cast a ballot for Andrew Cuomo over a Republican, even if that Republican was a woman (let’s say Elise Stefanik). Like Trump, Cuomo could even win a primary against other candidates who aren’t sexual predators.
Perhaps Biden’s biggest failing is confusing why he won in 2020. He still credits his “Soul of a Nation” platform for defeating Trump, and he views his victory as a moral rejection of Trump’s personal unfitness for office. However, a decisive number of voters probably didn’t care that Trump is a racist, sexist fool. They didn’t like the economic conditions at the time so they voted against the incumbent president. Biden should have noticed that pattern.
Dancing on the glass ceiling
The “glass cliff” is a phenomenon where women are promoted to higher positions during times of crisis or overall catastrophe, when the chance of failure is more likely. That clearly describes the circumstances of Joe Biden’s last-minute withdrawal from the presidential race and Kamala Harris’s elevation to the top of the ticket with just 107 days left until the election. Her candidacy began with a large asterisk attached because she hadn’t actually won the nomination through a contested primary, even though she probably would have if Biden hadn’t run for re-election. I’d argue that she still wouldn’t have faced a serious challenge in a 2024 primary, considering that the incumbent Democratic president’s approval was in the toilet. Few politicians voluntarily sign up to have their asses beat in public. (I don’t kink shame what people do in private.)
The fundamentals were against Hillary Clinton in 2016 (very hard for the same party to win a third term in the White House), and the obvious conclusion from Harris’s loss in 2024 is that the “sitting vice president of an unpopular president will lose.”
Look, there is a reason Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzer, or Josh Shapiro didn’t try to run. They saw the numbers. Biden’s near-freezing approval ratings and voter discontent with the economy/immigration spelled doom for the party in power. Democrats could’ve run a candidate with two penises and he’d still lose with these numbers.
Political historians would argue that 2008 and 2020 were much better years for a woman or, well, any Democrat to win the presidency than 2016 and 2024. In 2008, the economy had tanked and the sitting Republican president was very unpopular: George W. Bush had a 29 percent approval rating going into Election Day. In 2020, the economy had also tanked and the sitting Republican president was very unpopular. Plus, unlike 2008, we couldn’t leave the house and Smallville wasn’t on the air.
When John McCain picked Sarah Palin as his running mate in 2008, Obama was starting to build a formidable lead, although Palin injected a jolt of enthusiasm into his flagging campaign, she is generally blamed for costing McCain an election he was already losing. People are more likely to say that Palin blowing the Katie Couric interview sunk the ticket rather than McCain’s odd choice to suspend his campaign after the financial crash. This was the glass cliff in action.
Ironically, though, McCain himself never made Palin the scapegoat. In his concession speech, he graciously told his supporters, “And though we fell short, the failure is mine, not yours.” Biden should consider his former colleague’s words whenever he’s asked again about Kamala Harris and the 2024 election.
Good analysis, Stephen. In spite of jumping in the race late, in spite of being a Black woman, and in spite of being the VP of a very unpopular president, she came very close to winning. Yes, close doesn't count in political races, but the emphasis should be on just how weak TACO's win was. Instead, we are told that he has a mandate and won in a landslide, and that America isn't ready for a woman president, especially a woman of color. Poppycock!
Harris falling short had more to do with listening to the paid political consultants and the focus groups than in listening to the Democratic base, and to the squishy political middle. Her campaign was making real progress, then seemed to stall. She started out listening to the voters, then switched to the paid political consultants. And national Dems still listen to the paid political consultants instead of the voters. Meanwhile, local Dems are winning by listening to the voters.
ETA: Biden was very unpopular, even before the debate, as you noted. I like to be realistic, even if I don't understand why something is true. Biden was unpopular, and I don't understand why.
It's a cool analysis. I will cop to being someone who argues that Americans are fundamentally misogynistic and racist (especially given the frames Kamala Harris had to run under). In the end though I did see a big bias where she had to be perfect for so many people whereas the pricktator just...really needs excuses. Still I am amazed at the great race she ran despite so many people sliming her. And I foolishly felt buoyed and had hope for the future. It was very stupid of me, of course.
Indeed that is true of every Democrat and that's why Democrats were willing to throw away all the advancements of the Biden/Harris Administration as well as the proposals Kamala Harris had. So I know going forward that Democrats (and Americans) don't care about policy or any sort of tangible thing. They want grand, futile spectacle of talking tough against Republicans who get to wild out because they serve the unreconstructed. And there's of course lots of clout to be had by ignoring the unequal standards in both Murc's and McCain's Laws.