Eternally Optimistic Democrats Still Believe Everyone Should Vote

It's adorable, really.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act last week, which will require proof of citizenship when registering to vote for federal elections. This solves a problem that doesn’t exist.

The instances of non-citizens voting, particularly illegal immigrants, are “vanishingly rare,” but Republicans have chased this non-white whale as part of their ongoing effort to undermine faith in elections that they don’t win. This has proven effective, as Republicans are outright stealing a North Carolina Supreme Court seat on the pretense of imaginary fraud — conveniently targeting places where the “wrong” people are more likely to have voted.

Democrats Helped Mike Johnson Keep His Job Because Marjorie Taylor Greene Is Just That Terrible

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Donald Trump and Republicans don’t want the “wrong” people voting. They consider elections where the “wrong” people determine the outcome inherently illegitimate. Consider that in 2020, Trump carried white voters by six points in Arizona and Wisconsin, 11 points in Michigan, 15 points in Pennsylvania, and 39 (!) points in Georgia. It’s why he still insists the election was “rigged” and “stolen.” (If the percentage of the white electorate was the same as in 1984, Trump would’ve won re-election in a Reagan landslide.)

However, if Republicans worried that the “wrong” people voting would keep them out of power, the 2024 election should’ve allayed those fears. Kamala Harris lost ground with voters under 30 in every swing state. In the Rust Belt, where Harris campaigned the hardest, there was a double digit swing away from Democrats. Latino voters who backed Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in large numbers shifted 20 points to the right. Black voter support was also stronger for Trump than for past Republican nominees.

Practically speaking, Republicans probably don’t need to keep the “wrong” people from voting. Chuck Schumer is effectively suppressing the Democratic vote without any new legislation. But this is more a philosophical position than an outright heist. Trump in particular is a common gangster who’d rather win by force than persuasion.

Who are Democrats fighting for?

Democrats are mostly united against the SAVE act. Only four Democrats voted for the bill — Jared Golden, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, Henry Cuellar, and Ed Case. That’s a stark difference from the 46 Democrats who voted for the objectively bad Laken Riley Act. Clearly, most Democrats believe SAVE is not just bad for America but specifically — because, come on, these are politicians, after all — the Americans who vote for them.

The bill requires that an individual present a passport, birth certificate or other citizenship document when registering in person to vote. This has rightly raised concerns about an extra barrier for millions of women who’ve changed their name, usually through marriage but also for trans women. Obviously, Republicans (and unfortunately too many Democrats) don’t care about trans women, but why would they want to make it harder for married women to vote? Trump carried married women by five points. Yes, white married women with college degrees broke for Harris, but this demographic is also more likely to have a passport. If anything, Republicans are making it harder for their own voters — married white women without college degrees. Perhaps that’s intentional, because the overall goal is to keep the “wrong” people from voting. MAGA still considers married white women the “wrong” voters, even if they reliably vote Republican.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez notes that “Under the SAVE Act, women who took their spouse’s last name and don't have an updated passport or birth certificate would be turned away at the polls.”

However, Democrats arguing that SAVE will make it harder for women in general to vote probably won’t gain much traction. Notice how white married Fox News anchor Martha McCallum dismissed Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s concerns. (Watch below.)

When women like McCallum are worried about something (e.g. their kids learning that slavery existed or that queer people still exist), there is swift and severe political backlash, but McCallum obviously isn’t worried about losing her right to vote. She probably spent spring break in Cabo. Her passport is up to date. (Slotkin voted for the Laken-Riley Act.)

Liberal groups argue that SAVE will place an unfair burden on “the poor, people of color, trans people who have changed their names.” I’ve spent the past decade or so cautioning against racial and gender essentialism, because class and lifestyle differences are often more reflective of individual behaviors. “People of color” is an increasingly meaningless term, especially in this instance. Americans of Asian and Hispanic descent are more likely to have passports than Black Americans, as they are more likely to have direct relatives outside the country.

According to the Paid Passport initiative, only 20 percent of Black Americans hold a passport, compared to almost 45 to 50 percent of the U.S. population. It’s argued that the $165 passport application and processing fees are too much of a barrier. However, it’s arguably more complicated: Black Americans, generally speaking, don’t travel outside the country as much as white Americans so probably don’t see the need to invest in a passport. There are many reasons for this, though, beyond financial burden. White Americans have more direct roots in other nations, and there is often less culture shock in many European countries. That doesn’t mean Black people don’t have passports because they can’t afford them. Also, starting on May 7, Americans will need a “real ID” to fly domestically. The “real ID” requirements are similar to a passport. Almost 90 percent of Americans have flown commercially in their lives.

I appreciate that Democrats are pushing for the right of all Americans to vote without Jim Crow-era restrictions. Although, it does seem as if they are advocating for a political coalition that no longer truly exists. For example, Harris won voters who earn more than $100,000 a year, and Trump won the voters who earn less. The opposite was true for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012.

2012 exit polls

2024 exit polls

Not surprisingly, there’s a clear urban-rural divide among Americans who have passports. The highest percentage of American adults with a valid passport are in the urban suburbs (64 percent), major cities (62 percent) and the exurbs (58 percent). These are all areas where Democrats perform well.

According to a 2023 YouGov survey, more Biden voters had passports (52 percent) than Trump voters (45 percent). Just 24 percent of Americans with only a high school degree have a current U.S. passport, while 64 percent of Americans with at least a college degree have a current passport. That number increases to 71 percent for those with a post-graduate degree. It doesn’t take a political science degree to determine which party’s voters are more likely to have passports

2024 exit polls

The Democratic response to SAVE and voter suppression in general is consistent with democracy yet also inconsistent with the (accurate) liberal belief that low information voters helped elect Trump.

Source: NBC News national poll

Kamala Harris won voters who are well informed and get their news through traditional means. Trump won irregular voters who primarily get their news through social media and aren’t as well-educated as Harris voters. Obviously, a college degree doesn’t mean you’re smart, but neither is auditing courses at Joe Rogan University.

Morally, I get it — all Americans should have the right to vote and shouldn’t have their access restricted, but Democrats still operate under an Obama era idea that the more people who vote, without restrictions, the better it is for democracy. The MAGA reality might demonstrate otherwise.

Thirty, even 20 years ago, it was the Republican position that “uninformed” voters were bad for democracy (though they had their own biases regarding who they considered uninformed). If you went back to the founders and explained how Trump was elected twice, they’d say, “I told you so. This is what happens when you let everyone vote.”

I think that the principle of everyone voting is the morally superior one but Democrats need to actually compete in a reality where voters are not well informed and respond more to emotional appeals than detailed policy positions. I respect that Democrats are advocating for full suffrage, even if so many of the people whose rights they’re defending won’t thank them for it. They’ll still vote for Republicans — once they dig their birth certificates out of storage.