Is Ted Cruz Actually In Trouble And When Can We Celebrate?
Or is this another Democratic mirage?
Democratic Rep. Colin Allred faced off against Republican podcaster Ted Cruz at their first and only Senate debate on Tuesday. It was a massacre, with Allred delivering several “the reason you suck” speeches, including this one from his closing remarks (watch clip from Acyn above):
“If you don’t like how things are going in Washington, he’s responsible for it,” Allred said. “He’s introduced this type of angertainment where you just get people upset and then you podcast about it and write a book about it and make some money on it.”
Allred battered Cruz while never losing his nice guy appeal. It’s what I’d hoped for from the vice presidential debate. Cruz tried to dodge and weave questions about abortion and January 6, but Allred pinned him down and held him accountable for his words and actions.
Republicans want voters to forget January 6. There was no mention of the Capitol attack — nor of the heroic officers who held off the mob — at this year’s Republican National Convention. Vice presidential nominee JD Vance has the gall to claim that the 2020 election was a “peaceful transfer of power.” However, Allred reminded us of the truth: Congress members and their staff feared for their lives that day because of Trump’s Big Lie, which Cruz exploited for his own gain.
Allred called Cruz a threat to democracy, and when Cruz tried to laugh it off, Allred firmly told him, “It’s not funny.” (Watch clip from Art Candee below.)
“I was on the House floor when we went through the votes,” Allred said. “I remember when you objected to the results in Arizona. Y’all at home might remember where you were on January 6, what you were doing. I know where I was and I know where he was. I remember when they told us to reach under our seats for these gas masks I didn’t know we had because they had deployed tear gas in the rotunda. The officers locked all the doors, we barred the doors.”
He continued because there was no way Cruz could stop him: “And I texted my wife Aly, who was seven months pregnant with our son Cameron and at home with our son Jordan who wasn’t yet two, ‘Whatever happens, I love you.’ I took off my suit jacket and I was prepared to defend the House floor from the mob. At the same time, after he’d gone around the country lying about the election, after he’d been the architect of the attempt to overthrow an election, when that mob came, Senator Cruz was hiding in a supply closet.”
Cruz might’ve preferred to have spent this debate in a supply closet.
Can Colin Allred actually win?
Colin Allred clearly has Ted Cruz running scared. Allred’s fundraising emails are usually more optimistic than Jacky Rosen’s, the Democratic incumbent in Nevada who even the GOP’s own internal polling shows consistently ahead.
Although Cruz is an accomplished liar, he’s hardly a master thespian. He sounded genuinely nervous during his appearance on Mark Levin’s talk show where he whined that outgoing Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell has left him to fend for himself.
“Mitch McConnell runs the largest Republican super PAC in the country and has $400 million but that super PAC is used to reward the Republican senators who obey him and to punish those who dare to stand up him,” Cruz said, sounding like one of the embittered salesmen in Glengarry Glen Ross complaining that they aren’t trusted with the premium leads. This isn’t how you close.
Cruz claims that despite Allred coming within striking distance, McConnell hasn’t offered his campaign a penny or even a Yugoslavian pfennig.
Cruz reminded Levin’s audience that he didn’t exactly coast to victory in 2018 (although that was a Blue Wave midterm and this is a presidential election).
“In 2018, I was in what was at the time the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history. I was being outspent three to one,” Cruz said. “[McConnell] had $300 million, he spent zero in Texas. I won anyway but barely, by less than three points.”
It doesn’t really matter if Cruz won by less than three points or crushed Democrat Beto O’Rourke by almost 11 points, as Gov. Greg Abbott did in 2022. He still stunk up the Senate for another term, where his major achievements include aiding and abetting an attempted coup, bailing on his constituents during a devastating winter storm, and proposing absurd “door control” measures after the Uvalde school shooting. (Kids could now all die in a fire while still at risk from a gun massacre.) He later voted against a bipartisan gun safety bill fellow Texas Sen. John Cornyn negotiated.
We know Cruz is scared because he’s tried pretending that he’s a bipartisan dealmaker with many Democratic friends across the aisle. The evidence for such a claim is lacking. Voters can tell the difference between Cruz and Corynyn, who easily won re-election in 2020, when Democrats were far more bullish about their prospects in Texas. Cruz is a perpetual fundraising machine for Democrats, who desire nothing more than sending him home to Cancun.
“I’m being massively outspent again,” he told Levin. “[Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.)] is spending millions. And yet [McConnell] spent zero.”
“People wonder at home, ‘How come no Republicans stand up and have courage and stand up to Mitch and leadership?’ And the answer is if you stand up and say ‘no,’ it costs you $10 or $20 or $30 [million], or even $40 million.”
This might surprise the one or two people who take Cruz at his word, but campaign finance law prohibits McConnell from directing the Senate Leadership Fund’s spending decisions. Besides, Cruz can’t vote for far-right extremist judges more than once. If his overall suckiness puts a Texas seat at risk for Republicans, then he’s a bad investment. They’re better off with almost any other terrible MAGA Republican who can at least fly beneath the radar — quick, name the GOP senators from the Dakotas. Cruz is an admitted irritant who demands more money to save his seat because he’s made everyone hate him — a sort of affirmative action for assholes.
Still, Allred might stand a better chance if he’d run as an independent, like Dan Osborn in the Nebraska Senate race. The Texas voter electorate in 2020 was 41 percent Republican, 30 percent Democrat, and 29 percent independent. Joe Biden won 96 percent of Democrats, 51 percent of independents, but just five percent of Republicans. That’s the ball game. Even in 2018, Beto O’Rourke did just slightly better among Republicans than Biden but not enough to close the gap.
Beating a Republican in Texas would require maxing out the Democratic vote share, as Biden and O’Rourke did, while also performing significantly better among independents. There’s no evidence that either Allred and Kamala Harris are making much headway among Texas Republicans, even with notable anti-Trump Republicans Adam Kinzinger and Liz Cheney campaigning for them.
What do Texas independents want?
Unfortunately, Texas independents don’t seem like contributors to The Bulwark. January 6 and even democracy itself is not high on their priority list. The Texas Tribune interviewed some Texas independents in September. There wasn’t much movement from 2020: Those who voted for Donald Trump twice still believe that his policies are better for the economy (mostly because they conflate causation with correlation) and that he somehow “kept foreign leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un in check” (unfortunately, no breathalyzer tests are required before casting a ballot).
Some who voted for Joe Biden weren’t sure they could do so again but are willing to consider Kamala Harris. Others became more radicalized after covid or just cynical about government in general, so they’ll either sit out the election or vote for a third-party candidate. Republicans always benefit from making citizens distrust the system.
Independent voters are obviously a hard group to pin down, but too often Democrats assume most independents are reasonable “middle-of-the-road” types who find centrist politicians like Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema appealing. However, a good number of non-affiliated voters are attracted to non-establishment types (i.e. “kooks”) like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson. Allred, a Democratic member of Congress who doesn’t run around spreading insane conspiracy theories, is probably too mainstream for them.
Cruz has tried to smear Allred as a radical, specifically regarding Republicans’ current favorite scapegoat, trans children. Allred supported the 2021 Equality Act — a federal bill that would have prohibited discrimination on the basis of gender identity, sex, and sexual orientation, so of course Cruz accuses Allred of voting “to allow boys in girls’ bathrooms, [and] boys in girls locker rooms.”
Allred immediately released a response ad: “Ted Cruz is lying again,” he says, “but now he’s lying about our children.”
“I’m a dad, but I’m also a Christian,” he continues. “My faith has taught me that all kids are God’s kids. So let me be clear: I don’t want boys playing girls’ sports or any of this ridiculous stuff that Ted Cruz is saying.”
This was an obvious trap. Cruz would love to make the election about trans kids rather than his anti-American coup plotting or Cancun holidays. However, Allred played offense at last night’s debate, keeling the subject on abortion when he said, “[Cruz] wants you thinking about kids in bathrooms so you're not thinking about women in hospitals.”
“When Cruz starts talking about teen sports, you gotta watch out because the only position he ever played was left out,” he said. “I’m not trying to be mean but sit this one out.”
So, can Allred win over independents with his commanding debate performance? It’s complicated: According to 2020 exit polls, 45 percent of Texas voters identify as conservative, and Trump carried that group 86 to 13 percent. Cruz managed similar numbers in 2018. Beto O’Rourke and Biden both dominated self-identified liberals and moderates, but that just wasn’t enough. This is perhaps why Texas remains painfully out of reach for Democrats. (Yes, I know that Democrat Ann Richards, an outspoken feminist, was once the governor, and Ronald Reagan was once the governor of California. Times change.)
Democrats wasted millions on Amy McGrath’s 2020 Kentucky Senate campaign, the political equivalent to Joker: Folie à Deux. Mitch McConnell likely had a good laugh over the latest futile attempt to retire him before his contract with the Devil was up. He’s probably certain that a blue Texas remains a mirage for Democrats, and while the polls might tighten in Allred’s favor, eventually the state’s ideological gravity will win out. McConnell might get a giggle out of seeing Ted Cruz sweat bullets until Election Day, but I admit I’d enjoy it more if Colin Allred got the last laugh.
I'm realistic enough to see Allred has a tough uphill battle to climb--partisan voters are far more likely to cross the aisle for a candidate for an executive position like governor than they are for a legislator, because at the end of the day it comes down to which party has the majority in the chamber. It's why Larry Hogan can be re-elected comfortably as Maryland Governor as a Republican, but he's basically toast in the Senate race. Texas is gradually getting more purple, but there's no evidence yet that Democrats can win the state.
That said, Allred's best bet is attacking on the following fronts:
1) Abortion--this is a solid issue for Democrats this year, as it has good crossover appeal.
2) Health care--when voters think about health care, they lean more towards Democrats than Republicans
3) Cruz's unmanliness--a sniveling coward who hides in supply closets, runs to Cancun, and endorses the guy who called his wife ugly after making a big "protect my woman" stink is simply going to make voters feel disgusted having to vote for him. Weakness turns them off, and it could be worth getting some conservative leaners to at least leave that part of the ballot blank.
4) Call Cruz "Lyin' Ted" at every opportunity, then point out that Cruz endorsed the guy who first gave him that name, so either Ted is a constant liar, or he was lyin' when he made the endorsement. Which one is it, Ted? Are you going to lie right now? You are, aren't you? The beard cannot hide your lies!
5) Mockery and humor. Humor cuts through all the dry politics, mockery shows weakness in your enemy. Hit hard and often.
"Cruz claims that despite Allred coming within striking distance, McConnell hasn’t offered his campaign a penny or even a Yugoslavian pfennig."
This is the sort of writing that makes me hope Stephen one day releases a book of his political takes because this is comedy gold.