There’s a vignette in Silver’s very good book “Signal & Noise” about calculating odds and other statistics, where he approaches his baseball idol with a question and is told to fuck off, Mr. Idol only cares about Ws and Ls. Silver has as little understanding of what is important in politics as he does re: baseball. It distorts his analyses of how the political world works, inside and outside of Washington. He can be clear and convincing in explaining how weather forecasts come up with a 10% chance of rain, but he doesn’t grasp why MAGAs are fine with destroying NOAA and liberals are not. I suspect that HCR, if he asked her a question based on his tripartite Democrat demographic, would reply something more along the lines of “Fuck off, I only care about Ws and Ls.”
Nate Silver makes these arguments about Richardsonism and Blueskyism because he’s a liberal Democrat anti-Trumper who can’t stand to see how the Democrats let Trump win twice. In these arguments he’s trying to suss out how exactly that happened. The problem he’s identifying is that affluent college educated white Democrats live in a bubble that shields them from seeing average conservatives (or even average voters) for who they are. This has turned into an “epistemic” bubble that leads them to reject any criticism of the Democratic establishment and overlook any instances of misinformation in their side. This is dangerous thinking that can lead to Tea Party-like rejections of reality. Democrats clearly have a problem with non college educated voters and males, and their advocacy for people of color tends to be what they think is good for people of color instead of as a result of really listening to them. That is why Latinos swung so hard for Trump. Richardsonians thought Latinos were in favor of open borders and taking care of migrants who skipped the line, thus leading to a backlash. He’s begging and pleading with the party to NOT become the Tea Party and is pointing out that similar rejections of reality are happening on both sides. Democrats can’t be so self righteous to not criticize internally. That leads to a sclerotic party susceptible to demagogues.
Also he makes clear that European pizza is superior to what you find at the average Rays in NYC. That’s why the donor kebab is a better comparison. They’re both greasy and kind of gross.
Your analysis of the current political situation for the Democratic party is excellent, and I agree. Maybe, Silver gets it. But, it doesn't excuse Silver's unhinged post which I read as contrived and as character assassination. I lean to the "he's just jealous" conclusion.
HCR is, at her core, a humanitarian. That’s offensive to a lot of people, especially conservatives, and some sad white males. I think she’s great. She’s not the second coming, but her knowledge and opinions - which are based on her knowledge and not some weird political agenda pulled from who-knows-where - are always good for thought.
I am in HCR's demographic so I appreciate your rebuttal of Silver's hit piece. Richardson's columns are always well-researched and grounded in history which gives great context to current events. I didn't bother reading Silver's column, but I got the gist of it from your analysis.
I took a brief look at the post you referred to by Nate Silver. I wonder if progressives began to reduce his compensation as his polling became more and more like on-line betting.
Nate Silver has gone off the rails and his white male privilege is offended by HCR’s intelligence and womanness, not to mention the fact that she is an historian of the kind that only comes once or twice in a generation. I would rather live in her world than his.
Shorter Nate Silver: "Heather Cox Richardson cut off my penis"
As a political data analyst, Nate was very very much a one-hit-wonder, and should have stuck to baseball stats modelling, at which I am told he was very good.
He literally called ONE election properly, and though that conferred some form of cosmic knowledge of politics to hand down to us unwashed masses like Moses.
Then when he realized the Dems weren't taking him seriously or challenging his 'insights' he hopped on the 'contrarian train' so beloved by the white male 'notionally liberal' pundits who are threatened by the greater diversity of the Democratic party (ie we keep nominating people who aren't white, straight males) like Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein.
(Matty has another execrable bit up in the FTFNYT today scolding us 'leftists' about not loving the Oil and Gas industry like we should. smh )
Why did we ever listen to Nate Silver? He was right ONE TIME about something, so we listened. When it was clear that he wasn't right after that one thing, most stopped listening to him, but enough people must still listen to him to keep him going.
After reading your post, it's clear that Silver has problems with intelligent, educated women, hence his whine about HCR. Bless his heart!
I would love to be able to be right one time and have a lifetime career come from that where I could be wrong ever since. Reminds me of the Mark Twain quote. Give a man a reputation for being an early riser and he can show up late the rest of his life. Or something to that effect
Nate Silver knows the keys to the kingdom in this modern, turbo-enshittified political environment. All you need to do is pinch out hot takes that capitalize on FUD for benefit of billionaire owners. Whether it's concern-trolling or it's just "Hey maybe this random bigot is right because criticizing them made them has a sad," it's all the same foul result.
This is a really great take-down (or is it frisking now?) of Nate Silver's really appallingly thought-through blog, Stephen. You might also add that Silver is disingenuous. HCR didn’t 'lie' about her referring to Tyler Robinson being a Groyper. She said something along the line of “early indications are that he appears to be a Groyper”. When she got more information she did correct herself publicly. So Silver isn't being honest. Silver comes across as a male chauvinist who really finds articulate, educated women deeply offensive and annoying, especially when they are successful.
This is a response to a reply and not SER's criticism of Nate Silver with which I very much concur.
Heather Cox Richardson is not a journalist, but a professor and a historian. So-called "journalistic objectivity"(which FYI does NOT exist) is not applicable to her meticulously sourced and fact-checked writing on Substack. HCR links current events with historical ones to illuminate both.
As for HCR's appeal to "perimenopausal/menopausal/postmenopausal educated White women" - yes, we can read, and the older women she "speaks to", including her, are of the generation that stormed formerly male elite enclaves in education and business AND BTW PAID A STEEP PRICE IN TERMS OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT AND SEXUAL ASSAULT FOR BEING GENDER PIONEERS IN THESE PRIVILEGED PLACES.
Now Nate Silver dismisses us based on our lack of fertility utility - where he would simply use age, not the relative enlargement or disease stage of their prostate and/or reduction in sperm motility for men. Fuck you for this minimizing "dismissal", Nate.
No, these you-better-fucking-believe-we-are- politically-engaged women, who have seen an aggressive health- and life-threatening reversal of reproductive rights and access to abortion care for our daughters and granddaughters - a reversal which further threatens their educational and professional opportunities WHICH WE FOUGHT FOR - are cast by Great White Man Nate Silver as political extremists like the PAID ASTROTURFED TEA PARTY COLONIAL PLAYACTORS who were tools of the political movement that stripped us of reproductive rights and care? Fuck you for that, too, Nate.
Further, many White women voted for Kamala Harris because she was a good, smart, prepared candidate with a policy plan and a moral core, and the Republican alternative was, APPALLINGLY, a corrupt, resentful, compulsively dishonest, convicted felon and legally adjudicated fraudster/sexual abuser. Maybe we didn't want a credibly accused serial sexual assaulter and RAPIST in the White House AGAIN.
Further, if some Black People do not follow HCR, it is likely because there are also highly educated, perceptive and profound Black thinkers and academics who speak more directly to the concerns and history of Black voters. Many of them are also here on Substack and are well worth following, as well.
Myra, you rock. Thanks for writing what I feel to my core! Nate is irrelevant and must know it. The combination of his jealousy and misogyny is pretty ugly.
Myra, get thee to the village square and then shout your words from the rooftops! Loved this cuz I’m old white educated woman too. HCR has hit some big male nerve or something!
There’s a vignette in Silver’s very good book “Signal & Noise” about calculating odds and other statistics, where he approaches his baseball idol with a question and is told to fuck off, Mr. Idol only cares about Ws and Ls. Silver has as little understanding of what is important in politics as he does re: baseball. It distorts his analyses of how the political world works, inside and outside of Washington. He can be clear and convincing in explaining how weather forecasts come up with a 10% chance of rain, but he doesn’t grasp why MAGAs are fine with destroying NOAA and liberals are not. I suspect that HCR, if he asked her a question based on his tripartite Democrat demographic, would reply something more along the lines of “Fuck off, I only care about Ws and Ls.”
Thank for you this.
I read Silver’s opinion piece, and I had laughed for a while at the complete unserious nature of Silver’s assessment.
My main take away is that Silver is apparently jealous of HCR.
Nate Silver makes these arguments about Richardsonism and Blueskyism because he’s a liberal Democrat anti-Trumper who can’t stand to see how the Democrats let Trump win twice. In these arguments he’s trying to suss out how exactly that happened. The problem he’s identifying is that affluent college educated white Democrats live in a bubble that shields them from seeing average conservatives (or even average voters) for who they are. This has turned into an “epistemic” bubble that leads them to reject any criticism of the Democratic establishment and overlook any instances of misinformation in their side. This is dangerous thinking that can lead to Tea Party-like rejections of reality. Democrats clearly have a problem with non college educated voters and males, and their advocacy for people of color tends to be what they think is good for people of color instead of as a result of really listening to them. That is why Latinos swung so hard for Trump. Richardsonians thought Latinos were in favor of open borders and taking care of migrants who skipped the line, thus leading to a backlash. He’s begging and pleading with the party to NOT become the Tea Party and is pointing out that similar rejections of reality are happening on both sides. Democrats can’t be so self righteous to not criticize internally. That leads to a sclerotic party susceptible to demagogues.
Also he makes clear that European pizza is superior to what you find at the average Rays in NYC. That’s why the donor kebab is a better comparison. They’re both greasy and kind of gross.
American döner kebab, that is.
Your analysis of the current political situation for the Democratic party is excellent, and I agree. Maybe, Silver gets it. But, it doesn't excuse Silver's unhinged post which I read as contrived and as character assassination. I lean to the "he's just jealous" conclusion.
Good Lord, that is so stupid. Above all, Heather Cox Richardson is a historian! Historians are the truth tellers.
No , you are misinformed
I have carefully fact checked her statements with numerous reputable sources. That is my professions.
HCR is, at her core, a humanitarian. That’s offensive to a lot of people, especially conservatives, and some sad white males. I think she’s great. She’s not the second coming, but her knowledge and opinions - which are based on her knowledge and not some weird political agenda pulled from who-knows-where - are always good for thought.
No, I just kind of like democracy. If HCR shows up in the Epstein files, I’ll be done with her. How’s it going with Trump these days?
I am in HCR's demographic so I appreciate your rebuttal of Silver's hit piece. Richardson's columns are always well-researched and grounded in history which gives great context to current events. I didn't bother reading Silver's column, but I got the gist of it from your analysis.
I took a brief look at the post you referred to by Nate Silver. I wonder if progressives began to reduce his compensation as his polling became more and more like on-line betting.
Thanks for pointing all this out. Ugh. Silver has turned Sam Bankman Moron.
Nate Silver has gone off the rails and his white male privilege is offended by HCR’s intelligence and womanness, not to mention the fact that she is an historian of the kind that only comes once or twice in a generation. I would rather live in her world than his.
That is a really good rebuttal of Silver’s opinion of a truly knowledgeable woman, which can stem from a bit of jealousy perhaps?
He’s morphed into a shit
Silver don't need no stinkin' historian bona fides to take down smart historian lady!
Shorter Nate Silver: "Heather Cox Richardson cut off my penis"
As a political data analyst, Nate was very very much a one-hit-wonder, and should have stuck to baseball stats modelling, at which I am told he was very good.
He literally called ONE election properly, and though that conferred some form of cosmic knowledge of politics to hand down to us unwashed masses like Moses.
Then when he realized the Dems weren't taking him seriously or challenging his 'insights' he hopped on the 'contrarian train' so beloved by the white male 'notionally liberal' pundits who are threatened by the greater diversity of the Democratic party (ie we keep nominating people who aren't white, straight males) like Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein.
(Matty has another execrable bit up in the FTFNYT today scolding us 'leftists' about not loving the Oil and Gas industry like we should. smh )
Why did we ever listen to Nate Silver? He was right ONE TIME about something, so we listened. When it was clear that he wasn't right after that one thing, most stopped listening to him, but enough people must still listen to him to keep him going.
After reading your post, it's clear that Silver has problems with intelligent, educated women, hence his whine about HCR. Bless his heart!
Yet, I trust HCR. not a man who dabbles in "lies, damned lies, and statistics".
I would love to be able to be right one time and have a lifetime career come from that where I could be wrong ever since. Reminds me of the Mark Twain quote. Give a man a reputation for being an early riser and he can show up late the rest of his life. Or something to that effect
The "Republicans are better for the economy" probably happened one time, many years ago, and has stuck since.
le sigh
Nate Silver knows the keys to the kingdom in this modern, turbo-enshittified political environment. All you need to do is pinch out hot takes that capitalize on FUD for benefit of billionaire owners. Whether it's concern-trolling or it's just "Hey maybe this random bigot is right because criticizing them made them has a sad," it's all the same foul result.
Right on, Seth T
This is a really great take-down (or is it frisking now?) of Nate Silver's really appallingly thought-through blog, Stephen. You might also add that Silver is disingenuous. HCR didn’t 'lie' about her referring to Tyler Robinson being a Groyper. She said something along the line of “early indications are that he appears to be a Groyper”. When she got more information she did correct herself publicly. So Silver isn't being honest. Silver comes across as a male chauvinist who really finds articulate, educated women deeply offensive and annoying, especially when they are successful.
Male chauvinist: bingo
This is a response to a reply and not SER's criticism of Nate Silver with which I very much concur.
Heather Cox Richardson is not a journalist, but a professor and a historian. So-called "journalistic objectivity"(which FYI does NOT exist) is not applicable to her meticulously sourced and fact-checked writing on Substack. HCR links current events with historical ones to illuminate both.
As for HCR's appeal to "perimenopausal/menopausal/postmenopausal educated White women" - yes, we can read, and the older women she "speaks to", including her, are of the generation that stormed formerly male elite enclaves in education and business AND BTW PAID A STEEP PRICE IN TERMS OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT AND SEXUAL ASSAULT FOR BEING GENDER PIONEERS IN THESE PRIVILEGED PLACES.
Now Nate Silver dismisses us based on our lack of fertility utility - where he would simply use age, not the relative enlargement or disease stage of their prostate and/or reduction in sperm motility for men. Fuck you for this minimizing "dismissal", Nate.
No, these you-better-fucking-believe-we-are- politically-engaged women, who have seen an aggressive health- and life-threatening reversal of reproductive rights and access to abortion care for our daughters and granddaughters - a reversal which further threatens their educational and professional opportunities WHICH WE FOUGHT FOR - are cast by Great White Man Nate Silver as political extremists like the PAID ASTROTURFED TEA PARTY COLONIAL PLAYACTORS who were tools of the political movement that stripped us of reproductive rights and care? Fuck you for that, too, Nate.
Further, many White women voted for Kamala Harris because she was a good, smart, prepared candidate with a policy plan and a moral core, and the Republican alternative was, APPALLINGLY, a corrupt, resentful, compulsively dishonest, convicted felon and legally adjudicated fraudster/sexual abuser. Maybe we didn't want a credibly accused serial sexual assaulter and RAPIST in the White House AGAIN.
Further, if some Black People do not follow HCR, it is likely because there are also highly educated, perceptive and profound Black thinkers and academics who speak more directly to the concerns and history of Black voters. Many of them are also here on Substack and are well worth following, as well.
Myra Donnelly you nailed it. Thank you!
Myra, you rock. Thanks for writing what I feel to my core! Nate is irrelevant and must know it. The combination of his jealousy and misogyny is pretty ugly.
Yep, and if HCR’s demographic is perimenopausal women, that makes Nate’s groupies testosterone challenged men wishing they still had hair.
Nate who? Is he still relevant to anything?
Myra, get thee to the village square and then shout your words from the rooftops! Loved this cuz I’m old white educated woman too. HCR has hit some big male nerve or something!
Preach
Nate Silver is still around? Why?
Maybe he thinks he is still relevant.🤔
James Carville 2.0
'cause he generates tasty, tasty Click$.
Not from me, he doesn't.