So, Nikki Haley’s Still In This Thing
That’s good news for Democrats!
Nikki Haley, who I’m pretty sure is running for president, gave a speech in my beloved Greenville, South Carolina, on Tuesday. It was billed as a “state of the race” update, but the former South Carolina governor had no good news to share. Just days before the state’s Republican primary, a new Suffolk University/USA TODAY poll shows confirmed rapist and business fraudster Donald Trump leading Haley 63 to 35 percent, an overwhelming and hilarious margin. Trump’s crushing Haley among every possible demographic, including military families despite having mocked her husband’s military service.
There was some speculation that she’d announce the suspension of her campaign so she can avoid an embarrassing loss — a “Rubio,” if you will — but if she quit, she’d just have to return home to South Carolina, where apparently no one likes her that much. Instead, she pulled an “okey-doke” on the media and declared that she’s in this race until the bitter end.
“South Carolina will vote on Saturday. But on Sunday I’ll still be running for president. I’m not going anywhere.” It’s quite the defiant concession speech, and she delivered it four days early to avoid the holiday rush. “Some of you — perhaps a few of you in the media — came here today to see if I’m dropping out of the race. Well, I’m not. Far from it.”
Haley’s not done humiliating herself
We should take a moment to appreciate Haley’s resolve. She hasn’t won a single primary contest so far. Even Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum won Iowa. Newt Gingrich carried South Carolina. Last time a Republican candidate swept their way through to South Carolina was President George H.W. Bush in 1992. The states afterward don’t offer Haley much hope — well, maybe Utah and Guam — but she’s sticking with it through at least Super Tuesday on March 5 where there are 16 other states and territories she can lose.
Haley has both the moxie and the money for a drawn-out, hopeless fight. Her campaign booked $16.5 million in January, her best fundraising month to date despite two consecutive losses in Iowa and New Hampshire. Political strategists have suggested that she’s waiting for the final ugly Trump shoe to fall.
Rachel Bitecofor posted on social media, “Guys, she’s staying in the race so if Trump’s inevitable convictions tank his polling she’s the last one standing to benefit from a brokered convention. Her donors get this too.”
A jury has already found Trump liable for “sexual abuse” (i.e. rape), and last Friday, a judge ordered Trump to pay about $454 million in total penalties for business fraud. This hasn’t negatively impacted his polling. His first criminal trial — the hush money payments to Stormy Daniels — starts March 25, but that’s considered the weakest case against him. A verdict could come around mid-May, and although a conviction might fatally damage him among independents, it seems unlikely that anything will break the hold he has over his literal sneakers-wearing cult followers. Besides, why would MAGA abandon Trump after a conviction when Haley keeps saying she’d pardon him if she’s elected president?
Sorting Through Trump’s Legal Chaos With Liz Dye
Legal journalist Liz Dye from the Law and Chaos podcast and newsletter joins me on The Play Typer Guy to try and make some sense out of Donald Trump’s 8 million simultaneous trials, especially when Trump’s own legal strategy is to “deceive, inveigle, and obfuscate.”
Haley’s not a great candidate
Haley was asked yet again last week if she’d pardon Trump even if he’s convicted of major felonies. She said “yes” when the correct answer is “no.” She flunked a simple pass/fail democracy exam. Aside from the casual disrespect for the justice system, it’s incredibly short-sighted. President Gerald Ford preemptively pardoned Richard Nixon before he was even indicted. Trump is actively on trial in four separate jurisdictions. Ford personally justified his decision on the basis that a pardon carries an “imputation of guilt,” so Nixon admitted to wrongdoing in the Watergate scandal when he accepted the pardon. Trump is fundamentally incapable of accepting guilt for anything he’s done. Maybe Haley won’t mind letting an unrepentant criminal skate on charges that include espionage and insurrection, but Nixon’s pardon didn’t benefit Ford politically. The far-right conservative wing still distrusted him, and Nixon didn’t actively support his benefactor, even behind the scenes, when Ronald Reagan challenged him for the 1976 presidential nomination. No, the pardon is the major reason Ford lost the election to Jimmy Carter, but Haley is notoriously bad at history.
Haley’s promise to pardon Trump alienates the independents she claims she could win over in a general election, and it doesn’t help her with MAGA because it looks like she’s admitting that Trump’s a victim of political persecution while also suggesting that she benefit from this persecution and become the nominee instead of a “distracted” Trump.
She’s also alienated Black South Carolinians with her racially clueless remarks about the Civil War and insistence that America was never a racist country. A Black South Carolina voter told The Bulwark that Haley “didn’t do a good job [representing Black residents] when she was in office … She didn’t really care about Black people before,” and the best a Haley surrogate could offer in response was pointing out that she’d removed the Confederate flag from the state house in 2015. (The Confederate flag is a pretty big symbol of America’s racist history.) Black folks are all out of medals to give her for this one, especially considering Haley willingly left office to serve in the Trump administration, relentlessly attacks Kamala Harris, the first Black vice president, and blames Barack Obama, the first Black president, for America’s current racial divisions.
The Haley campaign shouldn’t count on Black Democrats crossing over to support her Saturday, even against Trump. Biden campaign surrogate Marlon Kimpson, a former South Carolina state senator, dished it up cold: “African Americans weren’t buying what Nikki Haley was selling as governor, and we won’t now. We will not bail her out of this trouncing by Trump.”
Haley’s West Wing Cinderella story?
Rachel Bitecofor isn’t the only smart political analyst who’s suggested that Haley could prevail at a brokered convention, but I consider this a fantasy that’s less plausible than President Joe Biden resigning and triggering a West Wing free-for-all at the Democratic convention. The recent House speaker follies demonstrated that there’s no future for almost normal Republicans in leadership. If MAGA took down Kevin McCarthy and denied Steve Scalise and Tom Emmer, there’s no chance for Nikki Haley. Besides, if Trump were abducted by aliens collecting the absolute worst specimen from every species, all the MAGA Republicans who didn’t challenge Trump out of loyalty or most likely fear will trample Haley on the convention floor. We’d wind up with some ungodly Josh Hawley/Marjorie Taylor Greene fusion — less a presidential ticket and more Jeff Goldblum’s final stage in The Fly.
Pundits have also suggested that if Haley stays in and keeps whaling on Trump, she can run in 2028 on the “I told you so” platform. However, it’s far more likely she’ll face the “you screwed us” backlash that Bernie Sanders received. Sanders and third party voters are often blamed whenever there’s another bad Supreme Court ruling. You can debate whether that position is right or wrong, but you can’t deny it exists. Most Democrats are mentally stable, while the Republican Party is a lifeless husk animated solely by petty grievance and personal vendettas. It’s possible that if Trump loses, MAGA will make Haley the scapegoat along with the deep state’s Taylor Swift psyops.
Haley legitimately tore into Trump during her speech Tuesday, which should make her eventual endorsement all the more appalling. Then she claimed that Democrats are thrilled to run against Trump because we know he’ll lose the general election. It’s an insulting lie: Trump’s political comeback is a Democratic nightmare and most liberals would prefer if Haley were the nominee, despite how much she sucks. Instead, she desperately seeks Democratic help in private to avoid a rout while publicly bashing us. She deserves the trouncing that’s coming.
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Wow it's going to be so awkward when she finally endorses President Klan Robe.
But yeah there's no runway left for her because she isn't a true believer. She tried to ride their racist nationalism tiger and she just didn't have the heart for it. The "bitter end" is a good phrase because it will be bitter, just like the rest of MAGA.
I like that you refer to Greenville as "beloved" even though you don't reside there anymore (as I understand it). I get disheartened when I see people online trashing towns and states because their governments are terrible. It's true that those governments are voted in by the populations but never is it by 100 percent. I often think of this quote from Medgar Evers. Staying in MS probably cost him his life but his conviction about his home state resonates with me because this is what we have to do to change things for the better in the so called "red" states. I realize that my little comment doesn't really have much to do with your piece but it's what I thought of first.
“Why do I live in Mississippi? The state is beautiful, it is home, I love it here. A man’s state is like his house. If it has defects, he tries to remedy them. That’s what my job is here. Why do I live in Mississippi? I live here to better it for my wife and kids, and for all the wives and all the kids who expect and deserve something better than what they are getting from life.”