Thom Tillis Cashes In His Chips
At least he'll still have health care in his retirement.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis from North Carolina announced the grand opening/grand closing of his political career on Sunday. Tillis has held his seat since defeating Democrat Kay Hagan in the 2014 Republican wave election. He narrowly won re-election in 2020 after his Democratic challenger Cal Cunnigham got caught in the world’s dullest sexting scandal. Tillis is just 64, which is roughly half the age of most senators, but he’s had enough.
Tillis said in a statement, “As many of my colleagues have noticed over the last year, and at times even joked about, I haven’t exactly been excited about running for another term. That is true since the choice is between spending another six years navigating the political theatre and partisan gridlock in Washington or spending that time with the love of my life Susan, our two children, three beautiful grandchildren, and the rest of our extended family back home. It’s not a hard choice, and I will not be seeking re-election.”
The senator’s retirement announcement preceded his vote against Donald Trump’s poor-people-killing budget bill, which Tillis denounced in a fiery speech on the Senate floor. (Watch below.)
“It is inescapable this bill will betray the promise Donald Trump made,” Tillis said. “I’m telling the president that you have been misinformed. You supporting the Senate mark will hurt people who are eligible and qualified for Medicaid.”
Of course, Trump hasn’t been “misinformed” by unscrupulous courtiers — the King Henry excuse. No, the president is willfully uninformed and cruel, hardly a winning combination. The bill reflects all his selfish priorities and promotes his psychopathic vendettas. It’s the exact sort of legislation you get when you elect Donald Trump.
Trump had threatened a primary challenge against Tillis if he didn’t support his legislative monstrosity, which will devastate North Carolina’s healthcare system and jeopardize insurance coverage for 663,000 Medicaid expansion beneficiaries in the state. That’s about one in 16 North Carolinians.
“What do I tell 663,000 people in two years or three years, when President Trump breaks his promise by pushing them off of Medicaid because the funding’s not there any more, guys?” Tillis said during his speech. Well, he can tell those people they’re screwed in no small part because Tillis endorsed and actively supported Trump, even defending him after his conviction in the New York election interference case.
Saturday night, Trump posted on social media, “Numerous people have come forward wanting to run in the Primary against ‘Senator Thom’ Tillis. I will be meeting with them over the coming weeks, looking for someone who will properly represent the Great People of North Carolina and, so importantly, the United States of America.”
However, Tillis has called Trump’s bluff by folding, which is as effective in politics as it is in poker. Democrats optimistically believe this means that Tillis fears he’d get swept away by an incoming Blue Wave. Democrats are over performing in special elections and Trump’s popularity is plummeting.
Yet, it’s worth urging some caution here. Tillis most likely believes defying Trump would seal his doom in a Republican primary, especially with Trump backing his opponent. But if the bill is as terrible as Tillis claims (and it’s even worse), why would he fear Republican voters? When announcing his retirement, Tillis said, “I look forward to having the pure freedom to call the balls and strikes as I see fit and representing the great people of North Carolina to the best of my ability.”
It’s revealing that he claims he’s “free” to follow his principles now that he no longer has to answer to voters. That seems inherently antidemocratic and weakens the argument that the bill is unpopular. When conservative Democrats voted for the Affordable Care Act, they were doomed in part because it would take some time for the law’s many benefits to take effect. Trump’s bill will bring the pain almost immediately. Tillis could easily run on an “I tried, damnit” platform. However, he knows that the GOP is now a death cult that will punish him for defying their leader.
Former Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema were considered the most powerful members of the Democratic caucus because they were genuinely “free” to say no. Brian Schatz once greeted Manchin in a Capitol hallway with a deferential, “Your highness.” Tillis has no such power. MAGA treats him like the Frankenstein monster. There’s no chance that Tillis will switch parties, as Democrats always feared Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema might do. Never Trumpers at the Bulwark often suggested that Tillis form a coalition with “moderate” Republicans Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, and Bill Cassidy that would caucus with Democrats, giving them the majority, and weakening Trump. This was always just West Wing fan fiction.
So, can Democrats flip the North Carolina Senate seat?
North Carolina is often described as a “purple” swing state, but the bitter fact is that Democrats have not won a presidential or Senate election there since Barack Obama and Kay Hagan in 2008. Democrats have won state-level races, including governor, but Senate races have become increasingly nationalized. The right-leaning voters who are willing to support a Democrat for governor might revert to the party line when Senate control is at stake. This has happened most recently in Montana, when former Gov. Steve Bullock lost the 2020 Senate election to Republican incumbent Steve Daines, who had voted to kill the Affordable Care Act.
Democrats believe former Gov. Roy Cooper stands a good chance of defeating any Trump-picked MAGA clown. They point to Democratic Gov. Josh Stein’s overwhelming victory last year over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark “Black Nazi” Robinson. Stein out-performed Kamala Harris by almost 20 points. Robinson was a comically flawed candidate, and Harris was pulled under by a Biden-shaped anchor.
The 2026 Senate race will probably be more competitive — and certainly expensive. A Trump sycophant will have to broadcast his support for the bill, no matter how badly it’s polling. Of course, that brings us to the larger dilemma with a significant portion of the electorate. They willingly believe right-wing lies.
Manchin and Sinema’s opposition to Build Back Better was irritating precisely because the legislation was popular with a majority of Americans but not the majority of donors who held the most sway over them. Tillis isn’t breaking with his party because of donor pressure. Trump’s billionaire giveaway is terrible policy that’s objectively unpopular.
However, Republicans only really care about maintaining support in the states and districts they need to hold Congress and the White House. Yes, Tillis warned that Trump’s bill breaks his promises to North Carolina voters, but Republicans will just lie about it. Florida GOP Rep. Kat Cammack blamed Democrats and the media for the negative personal impact caused by the anti-abortion laws Republicans passed. These aren’t reasonable people.
Still, we should gladly accept even a slightly better chance at flipping a GOP-held Senate seat. Tillis’s resignation is no major loss. He caved and voted to confirm Pete Hegseth as defense secretary. He boasted that he was “proud” to have helped confirm Tulsi Gabbard as intelligence director. He even voted to put crackpot conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy in charge of public health. He’s failed whenever it mattered, and his big act of political self-immolation probably won’t matter much, either.
"At least he'll still have health care in his retirement."
Which WE are paying for and which is more than many Americans can say.
Yeah I wish that Tillis would switch parties since it appears he may actually have a heart beating somewhere. The most common reason may be that DC has become even more toxic than ever with this new regime. Maybe just maybe he knows that if these people are ever ousted then they’ll all be held accountable and the same claim the Nazis made, I was just following orders, wasn’t really a good defense.
But that’s just me.