Weeping Angel Democrats Won't Help Take Back The Senate
Blink and you receive a strongly worded letter.
Minnesota Governor and former vice presidential candidate Tim Walz confessed last month during a conversation at Harvard University that he was “pessimistic” that Democrats could regain the Senate majority next year. He probably said this because he can count.
The 2026 Senate map is only slightly worse for Democrats than it was in 2024. Bottom line: Senate races are becoming more nationalized, and it’s far less likely that a Democratic candidate can win in a state where the presidential candidate is sure to lose. Democratic incumbents Jon Tester in Montana and Sherrod Brown in Ohio both lost to mediocre Republicans, and onetime Democrat Joe Manchin retired before a real Republican could curb stomp him in West Virginia.
Republicans greatly benefit from the current Senate dynamic. Donald Trump carried 25 states when he lost in 2020 (as many as Joe Biden won), but Kamala Harris carried just 19 states when she lost in 2024 (Trump carried 31). Biden won the popular vote by almost five points and 7 million votes, but Democrats still just barely won a Senate majority. If Democrats can only reliably win a Senate race in a state that the Democratic presidential candidate could carry, that puts a ceiling at 50 seats and a devastatingly low floor of 38 to 40. Yes, Trump cultists not voting down ballot prevented Republican wins in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada, but those are all states where Democratic presidential candidates are competitive.
‘Don’t Blink!’
Pollster Lakshya Jain disagrees with Walz’s pretty basic math: “I think Democrats can win the Senate back,” he posted on social media. “They just don’t want to — by which I mean that they’re not willing to run the kinds of candidates or policies that would allow them to compete in R+12 states.”
Jain’s position is, surprisingly for his profession, not supported by actual data. Both centrists and progressives alike seem to think that a combination of messaging and blockbuster movie ad spend can help flip solidly Republican states. Jain’s argument is interesting because he suggests that Democrats are just too stubborn to run candidates who are faux-Republican enough to win, as if voters in those states can’t vote for actual Republicans instead. There are plenty to choose from in R+12 states.
The theory is that an “almost but not quite a Republican, not really a Democrat” Democrat can function as a political Weeping Angel, voting for most Democratic nominees and bills until they’re observed, then they freeze in place and block all progress. But voters aren’t as stupid as this strategy demands.
Democrats have run candidates in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, and Kentucky who had the appropriate center-left backstory and distanced themselves from the national party. They all failed to beat the Republicans. The very smart pundits assume that simply ditching pronouns from your bio and beating up on trans kids is sufficient for Republican voters in Alabama to give you a chance. This ignores the power of Republican identity, especially in deep-red states, which is how Trump took over the party in the first place. Once he won the nomination, even the rank-and-file Republicans who loathed him found a reason to support him.
It’s even worse now, as the GOP has become a cult of personality. Tulsi Gabbard would easily trounce Nikki Haley in a Republican primary, even though Gabbard was once a Democrat. Any inconsistencies in Gabbard’s previously expressed positions wouldn’t bother the same voters who didn’t trust Harris because she changed her mind about fracking. All that matters is allegiance to Trump. Democrats could run Liz Cheney in next year’s Wyoming Senate race, and she’d lose to a bison wearing a MAGA hat.
Whose Congress Is It, Anyway?
It’s not enough, though, that Weeping Angel Democrats only act when no one’s looking. They demand that other Democrats freeze in place — and not even the so-called “wacky” leftists. Chris Murphy and Adam Schiff, hardly a pair of radicals, reintroduced the assault-weapons ban in April. A consistent majority of Americans support this legislation. However, Matt Yglesias complained at his newsletter, “You know and I know, and Chris Murphy knows and Adam Schiff knows, that talking about an assault weapons ban does not help Democratic candidates win steep uphill Senate battles in Texas and Iowa and Ohio.” This is already pretty bad politics, considering that Jesus Christ couldn’t win a Senate race as a Democrat in Texas, Iowa, and Ohio. Even the Selzer poll from Iowa would only show Christ up by three points, and Mary’s boy would end up losing by 13. However, Murphy and Schiff already hold Senate seats in Connecticut and California, respectively, and their constituents expect them to advance their interests, not those of unaffiliated Bad News Bears Democrats.
Lauren Eagan wrote at The Bulwark that “no ban is going to pass in the current GOP-run Congress, let alone be enacted while Trump is president. What will happen is Democrats running in red states and districts will be put on the spot.”
Oh no, we can’t put Democrats running in tough districts on the “spot.” There’s either too much light or no light. Now, this raises the question of “Whose Congress Is It, Anyway?” I’m all for centrist Democrats courting unicorn center-right swing voter if it helps them win much-needed congressional seats, but Yglesias argues that the very existence of liberals promoting liberal legislation makes their lives too difficult. It’s apparently too much for them to say, “I don’t agree with the gun safety bill and won’t vote for it.” They can’t bear the embarrassment of explaining their “kooky” friends who think schoolchildren shouldn’t have to live under permanent lockdown.
Former Democratic Senators Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema both believed Congress was theirs, as did the centrist problem solvers who only made problems for Joe Biden’s domestic agenda.
Voters don’t want mushy moderates, as Newt Gingrich described Mitt Romney in 2012. They want candidates who stand up for what they believe and don’t just promote safe ideas from their latest focus group or quad chart. Now, I do disagree with my more progressive friends who think that you can win statewide in Texas if you shout “defund the police,” “abolish ICE,” and “eat the rich” loudly enough. I love Patti LuPone with every ounce of my being but she’s never going to command the same crowds as Taylor Swift. There is no marketing strategy that will turn a minority opinion into a popular one.
That was one major problem with the Harris campaign’s “weird” messaging. More Americans, especially in key swing states, believe that Democrats like Harris and even Walz are “weirder” than Trump and J.D. Vance. That is not my opinion, but I’m also typing this while listening to Patti’s The Lady With The Torch.
It didn’t help that Democratic consultants apparently treated Walz like he was Locutus of Borg, recruited specifically to communicate to voters they considered alien to them.
“I was on the ticket, quite honestly, ’cause I could code-talk to white guys watching football fixing their truck,” Walz said, as if those are activities that happen simultaneously. “I could put them at ease. I was the permission structure to say, ‘Look, you can do this and vote for this.’”
This sounds as if Walz’s stump speech to white guys began with the soothing phrase “sun’s getting real low.” (Watch below.)
J.D. Vance’s “crazy cat lady” remarks are just mean. Tim Walz’s “hello, fellow white dudes” comment is pretty damn weird. I don’t think meanness, weirdness, or a combination of the two will help Democrats win anywhere. They should just be themselves. It’s the easiest thing to remember.
Even if the odds are long, they still should at least try.
That said I understand the reluctance for some people to be the sacrificial lamb, But the only guaranteed way not to win is to not run.
The American electorate really must upgrade though, and people have to stop voting (or non-voting) in the service of their privilege, prejudice, and even clout.
On top of this, don't let anyone play in your face and lie that there was some economic or practical reason they had to get President Klan Robe in for a second go at destroying the USA. They didn't turf out Tester and Brown for any practical reason. They ignored Biden and Harris' ACTUAL beneficial policy and went for racist vaporware, because they didn't want to vote for a Black woman.
President Klan Robe's sadopopulist campaign simply pledged to hurt the minorities that they hate. They wanted the ethnic cleansing. That's why so many people in Ohio were more than happy to let their Haitian neighbors be blood libeled and left twisting in the wind, even after they rescued one of Ohio's broken cities.
And of course, when it comes to getting votes, Democrats must be perfect. Republicans only need excuses. Nevertheless, Democrats should at least try to field candidates because you never know.
And we have seen in North Carolina...so many races, how every vote is important.
When oh when will the people of our nation understand that our government and the politics that run it are horribly, irretrievably corrupt and broken? Only a complete and total reboot can save us from the fascist Republicons and the impotent, status quo motivated Democrats. There’s no fixing this! The freaking Corrupt Supreme 6 will see to that.