On paper, Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens might’ve seemed a safe choice to hold the Senate seat that Democrat Gary Peters is vacating next year. She flipped Michigan’s 11th District in 2018 and was the state’s first millennial representative on Capitol Hill.
In practice, though, this is Haley Stevens when she speaks in public.
OK, that was actually kind of funny. I appreciate some good impassioned gibberish. Now, this is Haley Stevens in her official campaign launch video, which is just dull. I miss the pink gloves. (Sorry, you’ll have to watch on YouTube, which is just annoying.)
Although the establishment choice, Stevens has so far run a mediocre campaign with its share of embarrassing flubs. In September, she wrongly claimed on social media that Berrien County Commissioner Chokwe Pitchfor had endorsed her. He hadn’t, but maybe she had him confused with another Chokwe Pitchfor, like that infamous “Bill de Blasio” interview in the Times of London.
“I literally never endorsed her or heard a word from her team,” Pitchford insisted. “I promise you, I have not talked to anyone, emailed anyone about endorsements, or even hinted that I would be open to endorsing her.”
Pitchford, who’s Black, told The Detroit News that Stevens “thinks that she is going to just get the Black vote in Michigan and get (the support of) Black elected officials from across the state without having to do any of the actual work and have any policies. That team just assumed that I was going to be backing her, and that was the wrong assumption.”
That is obviously the exact opposite of an endorsement.
Mainstream Democrats assumed that Stevens would establish herself as the clear frontrunner in the primary, but she’s currently in a dead heat with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow and former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed.
“A number of months ago, it was kind of lining up for her,” political strategist Chris De Witt said. “But now I think it is much more wide open than that.”
The same Democratic establishment that has boldly led us to so many grand triumphs over the past decade consider Stevens the stronger candidate in a general election against Rep. Mike Rogers, the likely Republican nominee who has Donald Trump’s endorsement. Rogers lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin, even though Trump was on the same ballot and carried the state. This wasn’t because Slotkin is some magical MAGA-whisperer. Trump’s more devoted cultists didn’t actually vote for anyone but him.
It’s not a surprise that party bigwigs think Stevens has the best shot against the guy who already lost. Unlike Mallory McMorrow, Stevens has flipped a Republican House seat, and unlike Abdul El-Sayed, her name is not Abdul El-Sayed. Still, De Witt observes, “I’m not seeing any enthusiasm for [Stevens’] campaign. That certainly can change, but it doesn’t seem like there’s a lot of excitement about her effort.”
That lack of enthusiasm has started to show up in her fundraising. She’s only slightly ahead of her primary rivals in cash. Stevens raised $1.9 million in the third fundraising quarter, and McMorrow raised $1.7 million and El-Sayed raised $1.8 million. Although Stevens has more cash on hand than either McMorrow and El-Sayed, she also spent more than they did during the last quarter. Stevens will need a significant financial advantage to make up for everything else she’s missing.
“She’s bought herself some time with fundraising reports, but it’s not going well,” a Democratic strategist told NOTUS. “Anybody with two brain cells to rub together sees that.”
Reeves Oyster, the spokesperson for Stevens’ campaign, peddled some well-worn tropes in response to his candidate’s challenges.
“We have always known this would be a closely-contested primary, and anyone who thought otherwise doesn’t understand Michigan,” Oyster said. “Haley is running this race the same way she has run every race and the same way that she spent her entire life–putting her head down, doing the work, and focusing on Michigan. She’s focused on protecting Michigan manufacturing, lowering costs, and fighting for Michigan’s auto industry.”
“That might not be the kind of campaign that lights the internet on fire,” he added, “but it’s the kind of campaign voters expect and is necessary to win in Michigan.”
Like far too many mainstream Democrats, Oyster is dismissive of the internet and social media, where McMorrow is vastly outperforming Stevens, but at this point, it sounds like a politician dismissing TV in the 1980s (yes, the math works out). I think
sums it up well, when he says, “In many ways Stevens fits the classic mold of Schumer’s preferred. She’s an unremarkable generic Democrat who keeps her head down and focuses on raising money. That doesn’t cut it anymore. Democratic voters want leaders who inspire then.”“Inspiring” is not a word anyone would use to describe Stevens. However, one Stevens supporter, who rightly remained anonymous, told NOTUS that she could still win the primary, but she just “needs presentation training. She’s just not great in terms of how she presents. She’s fine for a House member; she’s short of it right now for a Senate candidate.”
The Senate election is a year from now. I’m not sure that’s enough time for the total makeover required. Sure, Henry Higgins worked wonders with Eliza Doolittle but he started with Julie Andrews and Audrey Hepburn. (The whole exercise might’ve been rigged.) No, I fear any “presentation training” for Stevens will prove no more successful than Lina Lamont’s vocal training in Singin’ in the Rain.
However, it definitely fits Mallory McMorrow, who’s served in the Michigan Senate since 2019. She doesn’t meet the “next in line” criteria that Schumer uses, but she sounds like a normal person when she talks. (Watch below.)
McMorrow’s speech about SNAP benefits was posted on Wednesday and by Thursday, it had more than 3 million views. Meanwhile, I can’t watch this Stevens clip below without thinking “round tones! round tones!”
Even if Stevens won the primary and squeaked to a victory in the general election, that’s probably the peak of her political career. McMorrow seems like a generational talent. It’s like Democrats rallying behind someone other than Barack Obama in the 2004 Illinois Senate race.
Of course, McMorrow has dared suggest that Senate Democrats could use new leadership, and Schumer probably takes that personally because he’s so bad at his job. Stevens has consistently praised Schumer. She knows what side her campaign is buttered on.
However, there has been some public breaks in support. Politico reported last week that Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich from New Mexico has officially McMorrow’s Senate bid. He’s the first to do so, but there’s likely more to follow, as McMorrow is meeting with Sen. Adam Schiff from California. Heinrich and Schiff are hardly wide-eyed leftists but neither is McMorrow. She just thinks the party can do better, and she’s right.
Did Schumer ask his imaginary republican friends who to endorse? That guy really needs to go. I like McMorrow but I like El-Sayed too. Is his name really that big of a negative in Michigan?
Is “gentlelady” a real term now?
I actually liked her unhinged meltdown on the House floor. Show some realness!
Beyond a certain point, fundraising has diminishing returns (Hillary and Kamala raised a ton, for all the good it did them). You need enough, and beyond enough, it doesn’t really help. The key is to connect to enough voters, and for those you can’t win, to at least not inspire them to vote against you. Besides that, I think whoever looks most like an outsider will have an advantage next year because voters are sick of anyone on the inside.