The midterm elections are less than a month away, and yet another poll shows the Oregon governor’s race deadlocked. Oregon Public Broadcasting conducted a survey of voters in late September, and incumbent Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek is trailing Republican Christine Drazan 44 to 46 percent. That is disturbingly similar to a Drazan internal poll from this summer that had the Oregon state senator leading Kotek 48 to 44 percent. When undecided voters are pressed to make up their minds already, Drazan receives 47 percent to Kotek’s 46 percent, which is still good enough to send Drazan to Salem.
Yes, this is Oregon, but if the dream of the ‘90s hasn’t officially died in Portland, it’s certainly on life support.
The OPB’s poll reveals some alarming math challenges for Kotek. The governor’s overall positive number is just 35 percent (a still weak 38 percent among likely voters), with a whopping net negative of 62 percent (a still brutal 60 percent among likely voters). Meanwhile, Drazen’s overall positive number is 43 percent (45 percent among likely voters) with a net negative of just 43 percent (45 percent among likely voters). Forty-six percent of likely voters surveyed have a “very negative” view of Kotek, with just two percent of likely voters without an opinion. This make persuasion difficult, whereas only 31 percent of likely voters have a negative view of Drazan and 10 percent of likely voters haven’t formed an opinion, suggesting room of Drazan to grow.
Only 72 percent of Kotek’s likely voters say they’ll “definitely” vote for her, while Drazan has locked down 87 percent of her likely voters. Six percent of likely Kotek voters are only “leaning” toward voting for her, compared to two percent of likely Drazan voters. Just 42 percent of Kotek voters are voting for her, while 54 percent of her voters are actively voting against Drazan. (Four percent of Kotek’s likely voters don’t know why they’re voting for her, which is peak Pacific Northwest.) About 48 percent of Drazan’s likely voters are voting for her, while 51 percent are voting against Kotek.
The PlayTyperGuy is supported by paid subscribers. Please become one!
Oregon voters rank their most important issues in this election as cost of living/the economy, high taxes, homelessness, public education, and poor leadership. Most voters aren’t pleased with the direction the state is moving with any of those issues, and that’s never good for the sitting governor trying to win re-election.
Federico Araujo, communications director for Kotek’s campaign, responded to the dire polling results with a soothing balm of “come on, this is Oregon!”
“There are still many undecided voters ahead of November. But when the choice is clear in an election, they always show up,” Araujo said, seemingly ignoring that Drazan still wins when the undecideds “show up.” A
“The choice couldn’t be any clearer in this race: Christine Drazan is ready to open the door to Trump’s agenda and Governor Kotek is fighting every day to protect Oregonians from federal overreach and harm.”
Unfortunately, the most compelling example of “federal overreach” is Trump’s ICE invasions, but immigration isn’t currently one of Oregon voters’ top priorities. Kotek’s campaign is actively linking Drazan to Donald Trump, but the governor’s approval rating in the state is roughly equal to the president’s (38 percent to 37 percent). Drazan’s campaign has mocked this strategy as desperate deflection, particularly in this ad where voters complain inside a beautifully appointed house that Kotek isn’t focused on their material concerns. (Watch below.)
According to OPB’s poll, Kotek has support from 54 percent of voters from the tri-county Portland metro area. That’s significantly less than the roughly 61 percent of voters she won in the region back in 2022, when she narrowly won with 46.96 percent of the vote to Drazan’s 43.54 percent. Drazan is currently winning 40 percent of Portland metro area voters, but leads Kotek among voters in the rest of the state, which is more than just Portland. In 2022, it was believed that center-left independent Betsey Johnson was a spoiler candidate for Kotek — she won 8.6 percent of the vote — but this year’s polling suggests the opposite might have been true. Johnson could have siphoned Kotek-skeptical moderate voters from Drazan. Without Johnson on the ballot, Drazan is consistently exceeding her final 2022 performance, while Kotek is struggling to match hers.
Some likely voters seem to think Democratic one-party rule is a possible barrier to progress. That’s especially challenging for Kotek. She wants to sound alarms about a Republican as governor, but Drazan can point out that Democrats have held the office for 40 years. A significant number of Oregon voters are self-identified independents and don’t consider themselves hyper partisan. They might buy into the “working across the aisle” narrative. Regardless, one-party rule is always at risk when voter are in an anti-incumbent “throw the bums out” mood.
The OPB poll shows that 42 percent of Oregonians prefer a governor who’s liberal on social issues. However, that’s not an overwhelming figure. Drazan last ran for governor just months after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade — a decision the anti-abortion Drazan supported. Kotek’s campaign has presented Drazan as a serious threat to abortion access. “Abortion is not a settled issue, Senator Drazan,” Kotek posted on social media. “Seventeen states banned abortion after the Dobbs decision, which you celebrated.” However, Democrats campaigning in Republican-dominated states have run ads pointing out that most contentious social issues have already been settled within the legislature. The implication is that, regardless of their own position, there’s not much they can do to change the law, so it’s “safe” to vote for them because of different issues. Oregon Democrats have a supermajority in the state legislature so there’s obvious limits to what Drazan could do as a Republican governor. That’s certainly no justification to vote for her, but I’m not a former Betsey Johnson voter.
During their only debate last Thursday, Drazen reminded voters that “four years ago, Tina Kotek told Oregonians that she would solve the problems and challenges facing our state.” (Did she actually make that claim? If so, she was setting herself up to walk into a rake.)
“She hasn’t,” Drazen said. “On all the issues we care about — homelessness, affordability, schools, our economy, spending — she has failed.”
Kotek countered with an Alanis Morissette riff:
“I think it’s ironic that Sen. Drazan wants to talk about affordability when she voted against a low-income tax break in the session this year,” Kotek said. “I think it’s ironic that she says affordability is an issue when she voted against the Power Act, which is right now reducing household utility rates by making data centers pay their fair share.”
Kotek was trailing in the polls against Drazan for most of 2022, as well, before she finally took the lead in the last weeks of the campaign. Let’s hope history repeats itself. However, when voters are angry, they can make shocking choices.
That was depressing to read.
I'm on the opposite coast so not an up close view, but common sense tells me if you're the sitting Democratic governor in one of the bluest states in the country and you are struggling to be re-elected, you have probably done an overall shitty job. This would be one bright spot in what's likely to be a long night for Republicans (and all of us, really, as Trump grows increasingly shrill and desperate).