The Texas Senate race has received a lot of attention after a (needlessly) contentious Democratic primary. However, it looks as if James Talarico’s theory of the campaign has paid off — he’s leading consistently in polls and has even broken 50 percent in a few, including last weekend’s New York Times/Siena poll. Talarico has a considerable lead among voters on key issues such as health care, tariffs, cost of living, and “doing what’s best for ordinary Americans.” He’s even tied with his Republican opponent Ken Paxton on immigration. Apparently, Republicans calling him “Talafreako” has not damaged his standing with Texas voters who are actual adults.
Talarico’s support in the Times/Siena poll comes from Black voters, with an Obama-level 91 percent support, and Latino voters, with an impressive 62 percent support (compared to 2024 Senate nominee Colin Allred’s 47 percent). However, he’s also managing 39 percent support among white voters (about 5 percent better than Beto O’Rourke in 2018). He’s actually improved past Democratic performance not just with white college-educated voters but white non-college voters, who are starting to turn on Donald Trump. Poverty and war will do that.
Talarico flipping this Senate seat felt like the ideal combination of a bad economic conditions — thanks entirely to Trump and his Republican stooges — a strong Democratic candidate, and a MAGA opponent who is a perpetual corruption machine whose horribly mistreated ex-wife had to release a hostage video style appeal to disgusted Republican voters. (Talarico’s response was money: “Asking Texans to close their eyes and vote for a political party instead of the best person for the job is exactly what’s wrong with today’s politics.”)
The conventional wisdom was that if Republicans hadn’t rejected incumbent John Cornyn for Ken Paxton, Texas would’ve remained safely in the GOP column. I believed this a few months ago, but it’s increasingly clear that the significant anti-incumbent wave might’ve taken out Cornyn, as well. (Maddeningly, it seems as if only Susan Collins is potentially immune.)
This anti-incumbent wave could also drown sitting Texas Gov. Greg Abbott. The Times/Siena poll has Democrat Gina Hinojosa at 49 percent against Abbott’s 46 percent. A June survey had Abbott leading Hinojosa 51 percent to 44 percent. (Willie Nelson endorsed Hinojosa this weekend. That’s cool but there’s probably no direct connection.)
Hinojosa is a very strong candidate with a compelling personal history, which she’d detailed in her campaign ads. (Watch below.)
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Hinojosa has served in the Texas House of Representatives since 2017. She grew up in the Rio Grande Valley on the southern border. She says as a child, she learned a critical life lesson from her grandmother: “No te dejes” (Fight back). She attended undergrad at the University of Texas in Austin and received her law degree from George Washington University in D.C. (She met her husband during her one semester at the University of Texas School of Law.)
She represented unions as a civil rights lawyer and first entered politics when she ran for Austin ISD School Board after her son’s elementary school was threatened with closure due to state budget cuts. She organized other parents and helped keep her son’s school open, as well as ell the other public schools in the district. But local public schools were still under attack from Republicans, which inspired Hinojosa to run for her seat in the 49th House of Representatives district. Public education remained a priority for her. In 2018, she helped secure an investment of more than $11 billion in Texas public schools.
As governor, she’s promised to replace Texas Education Agency Commissioner Mike Morath. She’s called for an end to the state voucher program that was passed last year. She’s likely gained some traction, though, because of her opposition to data centers, which she says “are owned by the richest men in the world” and have “no rules.”
Hinojosa benefited from the period when Abbott outright ignored her and instead chose to attack Talarico, as if he were running for Senate. Hinojosa has run some good campaign spots, including one that mocked Abbott’s bad-faith attacks while simultaneously annoying humorless left-wing activists and another that described her personal experience carrying a fatally diagnosed pregnancy to term. (Yes, she’s pro-choice. That’s just one of the choices.)
Abbott’s last-minute scramble to mount a campaign against his actual opponent has obviously not borne great results. It seems as if he only succeeded in raising her name identification, and the more people learn about Hinojosa, the more they like her.
When Abbott last won re-election in 2018, he enjoyed 55 percent approval. Trump’s favorable rating — while out of office — was 45 percent. Now, Trump’s approval in the Times/Siena poll is is just 40 percent and his disapproval is 57 percent. Forty-seven percent of Texas voters strongly disapprove of how Trump’s handled the economy, and 44 percent strongly disapprove of how he’s handle immigration. Meanwhile, Abbott’s approval, which dropped to 39 percent last October, is languishing in the mid-40s.
Unfortunately, the Democratic Governors Association has spent millions helping Oregon Gov. Tina Kotek win re-election in an increasingly tight race — they’re her biggest donor — and that doesn’t leave a lot of money left over for Texas, which has been considered a long shot. Still, Hinojosa has raised $6 million so far, mostly from grassroots contributions and union support. Hinojosa is a good investment and if she upset Abbott, she’d become the first Democratic governor since the late great Ann Richards.
Conditions are bad in Texas, and voters are pissed off. Reports state that the 17 percent tariffs Trump stupidly imposed last year on Mexican tomatoes might force restaurants to end free chips and salsa … in Texas. Abbott might very well reap what Trump has sown while starting his meal off with chips and salsa that don’t taste as good because he had to pay for them.
Gina Hinojosa would be great for Texas of course, but realistically I would be more surprised to see her actually prevail than I would Talarico. Fingers crossed.
I love a pro choice candidate. Who knows, maybe we'll all be pleasantly surprised, which would make for a nice change of pace.