Trump's Weakness Isn't Strength
This isn't 1984.
Donald Trump has continued his roaring rampage of revenge against those who were once loyal to him. This is not a demonstration of strength. After all, the “Layla” scene in Goodfellas wasn’t a prelude to better days for the wiseguys. That’s why Martin Scorsese chose “Layla” and not “The Best Is Yet To Come.”
Barely two years into his second nightmare term, Trump has whacked Marjorie Taylor Greene, Bill Cassidy, and Thomas Massie. He also took out some Indiana state representatives who defied his gerrymandering scheme. Although in theatre we’d consider that a good first act, in the political world, this all seems desperate, like the end of a Shakespearean tragedy but with less appealing characters.
Media coverage has boasted about Trump’s continued command over the Republican primary electorate. This is a short-sighted interpretation of events. The Republican primary electorate is shrinking, as evidenced by Trump’s approval rating, which is deteriorating almost as fast as his mental state. In Kentucky, where Trump basks in his triumph over Massie, Republicans accounted for 47.75 percent of primary voters, Democrats 41.79 percent, and independents 10.47 percent. In the 2020 presidential election, Republicans had a 16 percent advantage over Democrats. It’s obviously not an apples to apples comparison, but this was a primary with significant GOP interest. The president endorsed Massie’s primary challenger and wouldn’t shut up about it. He sent his stooges to campaign against Massie.
This wasn’t unique to Kentucky, either. In Georgia, Democratic primary voters had a 15 percent advantage over Republicans. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff received more votes than all Republican Senate primary candidates combined, and he ran unopposed!
Democratic nominee for governor Keisha Lance Bottoms pulled in 607,193 votes, which is almost the total vote count combined for Republicans Burt Jones and Rick Jackson, who will face each other in a runoff. Bottoms won outright, so she’ll have a head start in the general election. This is also what happened in Texas, where Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico won a majority of the vote, while Republicans Ken Paxton and incumbent John Cornyn moved on to a punishing runoff race.
Sitting presidents rarely, if ever, personally target a member of their own party for political destruction. That’s just one of many norms Trump has broken, and it’s hardly an impressive achievement. Even at his lowest approval level, former President Joe Biden could have easily defeated any Democrat for whom he held a grudge. He never considered it because he’s not an unhinged psychopath.
Biden remained above the fray, like an actual president, when Democrats expressed growing frustration with Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. Unlike Trump, Biden didn’t lead the torches and pitchforks mob. It’s revealing that Trump had to get his gross hands dirtier and expend political capital to unseat Cassidy and Massie.
In 2022, Biden endorsed Oregon Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader’s re-election. This was after the centrist Schrader, a member of the so-called “unbreakable nine,” actively sabotaged Biden’s Build Back Better bill. Nonetheless, Biden said, “We don’t always agree, but when it has mattered most, Kurt has been there for me.” Schrader lost his primary to progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner, and there was much rejoicing among liberal circles. This included me, but I confess that I might’ve missed the larger strategy behind Biden’s loyalty. McLeod-Skinner lost the general election to Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer — Trump’s future scandal-plagued labor secretary. The margin was narrow enough that it’s highly possible Schrader would’ve held the seat. He might’ve been a “no” on Build Back Better, but he also would’ve been a “no” on the many terrible GOP bills that Chavez-DeRemer offered an enthusiastic “yes.”
It’s also a misread to suggest that Trump “controls” the MAGA mob. He can benefit from their fury, perhaps even direct it against a Republican enemy, but he can’t persuade the mob to support saner candidates, even if threatens the GOP’s congressional majority, especially in the Senate.
Last week, Trump shocked Republican senators with his last-minute endorsement of Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate primary runoff. It’s not a major surprise that Trump would betray John Cornyn and back Paxton, a perpetual corruption machine. Sure, Cornyn has shamelessly pandered to Trump, but he’s 74. If he’s re-elected, this is likely his final term and Trump can’t risk Cornyn suddenly discovering his conscience when free from electoral consequences. He’d find a degenerate sleazebag like Paxton far more reliable. It’s why he currently surrounds himself with shameless opportunists and incompetent grifters.
What is surprising about Trump’s Paxton endorsement is how long he waited. The runoff is literally today. After the March primary, Trump demanded an immediate end to the Republican Senate primary. He said he’d ask whichever candidate he didn’t endorse to drop out of the race. At the time, it was speculated he’d throw Cornyn a lifeline. However, Paxton openly defied Trump and made it clear that he wouldn’t drop out. Worse, polls showed that Trump’s endorsement held little sway, and there was a very good chance Cornyn would lose the runoff even with Trump’s endorsement. Meanwhile, Paxton’s lead continued to grow. So, predictably, Trump joined the mob from the rear, the position with the least appealing view.
“Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,” Trump posted on social media.
Republicans who enjoy playing dumb professionally questioned why Trump would behave entirely consistent with his emotionally damaged personality.
“How does that help strengthen the president’s hand?” Sen. Lisa Murkowski asked. “I mean, we lose a state like Texas?” (Murkowski has survived Trump’s attempts at unseating her.)
Sen. Susan Collins noted that Paxton is “ethically challenged” (i.e. a crawling piece of slime) and said Cornyn “deserved the president’s support.”
Of course, as Clint Eastwood once said, “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.” Trump is loyal to no one but himself.
“John Cornyn is a good man, and I worked well with him, but he was not supportive of me when times were tough,” Trump wrote. Cornyn had suggested that the party should move past Trump, but that was in in 2023. It’s not new information. Maybe Trump had never forgiven Cornyn and was always going to lower the boom. Sadism is also in character for him, but shame-driven cowardice is an even more prominent personality trait. Paxton was set to defeat Cornyn no matter what, so Trump slapped his name on this particularly grotesque structure so he could take undue credit for it. A gullible media will likely help promote this narrative. However, the reality is clear. Trump isn’t strong. He’s weak, scared, and increasingly desperate.
I can see Trump having increasing control over a shrinking GOP (decent Republicans are increasingly likely to no longer be Republicans) but I’m wondering if Democrats are able to capitalize on this. Their vote share hasn’t noticeably increased since 2016, somehow it looks like a lot of disgusted people just sit it all out.
It’d help of course if Democrats just tore the shit out of Republicans—I’d love to see Talarico get so nasty on Paxton that he crushes that gross sweaty bastard. But somehow I see the guy not wanting to taint his nice guy image. In which case he’d better define himself for the electorate before Paxton defines him (they’re already making up “vegan” shit).
It's going to be an interesting November.